First poll of Jax runoff shows Alvin Brown, Ken Jefferson ahead in close races

curry brown update

A new automated phone poll of 1,076 likely voters from St. Pete Polls is the first to address the 2015 Jacksonville runoff election for sheriff and mayor. The poll, with a 3 percent margin of error, shows a tight mayoral race with incumbent Democrat Alvin Brown slightly ahead of Republican Lenny Curry. It also shows Democratic sheriff candidate Ken Jefferson ahead of Republican Mike Williams in the very early going.

The poll has Brown ahead of Curry, 49.4 percent to 46.1 percent, showing that in a binary race there already is a slight skew to Curry from the Bill Bishop supporters in Tuesday’s election. The poll was taken before the pension deal being spiked Wednesday night by the Jacksonville City Council.

With neither Curry nor Brown above 50 percent, the mayoral race clearly hangs in the balance. The margin is just outside the margin of error.

In good news for Brown and Curry, both have net favorable ratings. Brown has a 52.2 percent favorable rating (and a 34.3 percent Unfavorable); Curry is at 46.5 percent favorable and 39.8 percent unfavorable. Both men have a significant proportion of voters who are unsure (13.7 percent for Curry; 13.5 percent for Brown).

Williams, who lost the First Election by 15 points to Jefferson, likewise is closing the gap with the Democrat in a binary race (48.8 percent to 40.6 percent).

We will have a deep dive into the data of this poll later Thursday morning, regarding demographic and other breakdowns. Check back soon for detailed analysis.

A.G. Gancarski

A.G. Gancarski has written for FloridaPolitics.com since 2014. He is based in Northeast Florida. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter: @AGGancarski



#FlaPol

Florida Politics is a statewide, new media platform covering campaigns, elections, government, policy, and lobbying in Florida. This platform and all of its content are owned by Extensive Enterprises Media.

Publisher: Peter Schorsch @PeterSchorschFL

Contributors & reporters: Phil Ammann, Drew Dixon, Roseanne Dunkelberger, A.G. Gancarski, Anne Geggis, Ryan Nicol, Jacob Ogles, Cole Pepper, Gray Rohrer, Jesse Scheckner, Christine Sexton, Drew Wilson, and Mike Wright.

Email: [email protected]
Twitter: @PeterSchorschFL
Phone: (727) 642-3162
Address: 204 37th Avenue North #182
St. Petersburg, Florida 33704




Sign up for Sunburn


Categories