Melissa Ross
As Donald Trump rides high in the polls and takes his presidential campaign to the Texas border, one prominent Florida political analyst says it’s important to have some perspective on the 2016 race.
“Everybody needs a reality check,” says Matt Corrigan, UNF political science professor and author of Conservative Hurricane: How Jeb Bush Remade Florida.
“Polls this early are not predictive of what’s going to happen,” Corrigan said during an appearance on WJCT’s First Coast Connect.
“Let’s take a deep breath. About this time, I recall that Rudy Guiliani was leading in 2008, and Herman Cain in 2012. With that said, Trump is going to be a factor. Pollster Frank Luntz had a really good comment: Candidates don’t get out of races because they’re tired, they get out when they’re out of money, and Trump’s not going to run out of money.”
Corrigan’s book has been widely quoted in terms of establishing Jeb Bush‘s conservative bona fides while Florida governor. That said, Corrigan says on the Republican side of the 2016 field, Bush faces the challenge of making that case to a skeptical GOP base.
“Bush came out of office in 2007, right before the emergence of the Tea Party. And the Republican Party has shifted right, no question. He’s raising money, organizing early for the long haul. The question this time is, with 16 candidates in the race, are the early states going to be that predictive? Who can last the longest? Bush is in a good position to do this, but his problem is, he’s not exciting the base. Can a candidate win this time who isn’t exciting the base of his own party?”
And, Corrigan says it’s important to note that while Bernie Sanders is generating big crowds and excitement of his own among base Democrats, Hillary Clinton is outperforming both Bush and Marco Rubio in Florida in terms of fundraising.
“People who thought because of Rubio and Bush running, that Florida would go Republican in the general election, hang on. Hillary Clinton has lots of support in the southeastern part of the state and it will be a real battle here if it’s Clinton versus Rubio or Bush.”
The bottom line? For Florida’s political junkies, 2016 is going to be a wild ride.
“We’re at the center of the political universe, again.”
