Peter Schorsch
There I was, in Pisa on Wednesday, taking in the wonder that is the Tower of Pisa.
And I just couldn’t stop thinking about Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum.
I know, I know … what a shame it was for me, while on a glorious vacation in Italy and yet I could not stop thinking about Florida politics. However, before setting off on our Pisa excursion, I checked my email, including one message from Gillum’s campaign manager, Brendan Phillips proclaiming “Andrew’s in the lead.”
Phillips’ excitement was based on a new survey from Gravis Marketing — an organization which once got a Maryland congressional race wrong by 96 points — which gives Gillum a five-point lead in the Democratic primary.
Reading those numbers, I underwent the same sense of skepticism that Giovanni di Simone must have felt when he took over the Tower’s construction: something just doesn’t feel right.
It’s easy to knock poll results you don’t like. Perhaps there’s an over-sample of a specific demographic. Or the survey was conducted over too long a period. Maybe the polling firm itself has a spotty record.
While there are any number of issues with this particular Gravis poll (especially glaring is a 16-day polling window), the most troubling indicator is one of the survey’s other findings. According to this poll, Bill Nelson leads Rick Scott 50 to 40 percent.
Ten points?
There’s a better chance of me climbing the stairs to the top of Tower of Pisa than Nelson defeating Scott by ten points.
Seriously, there isn’t one serious Democratic consultant or activist who has Nelson leading Scott by double digits. It’s doubtful many of them believe Nelson is even leading Scott, much less by that margin. In fact, the most recent public polling has Scott ahead of Nelson by as many as four points.
A more rational assessment of the U.S. Senate race came via Steve Schale, who remarked on Twitter, “The polling at this point is relatively pointless. It’s gonna bounce around a bit, but fundamentally FL is very stable. Last two Gov & last two Pres all decided by a point. This should be same kind of race.”
Perfectly said, Steve. That’s why it’s ridiculous to believe a poll that shows Nelson +10. And if it’s ridiculous to believe that part of the poll, it’s ridiculous to believe that Gillum is up five over his opponents.
Those on Gillum’s team who say he is leading reminds me of the builders who tried to make the Tower of Pisa look better by making its columns and arches on the south side about an inch taller than those on the north side.
You just want to shout: “You’re not fooling anyone!”
A clearer picture of the Democratic primary probably can be found in the poll produced by the research organization Let’s Preserve the American Dream which finds the Democratic gubernatorial race tight between Philip Levine and Gwen Graham, with newcomer Jeff Greene having a lot of ground to make up.
Florida Politics reported exclusively about this poll, so it may have missed your radar screen.
One other polling note, this one not about Gillum or the Leaning Tower of Pisa. There are now two polls that show Democrat Sean Shaw leading Republican Ashley Moody in the Attorney General race (although there’s no guarantee Moody will be the GOP nominee). FP hears that Shaw’s strong showings are creating quite a buzz at the Florida Justice Association’s annual gathering at The Breakers.
