Poll: Democratic primary for Florida Governor a two-person, one-point race

Gwen Graham and Philip Levine

Another day, another poll of the Democratic primary for Florida governor. Only this one shows Philip Levine on top instead of Gwen Graham, with Andrew Gillum surging late but perhaps from too far back to catch up in a week, and the others fading.

A new tracking poll from SEA Polling and Strategic Design, taken Sunday through Tuesday, shows former Miami Beach Mayor Levine leading the former U.S. Rep. Graham 26 percent to 25 percent among all Democrats surveyed, 27 to 25 among those who’ve already voted, and 28 to 27 among those who are the surest to vote in the primary.

The Democratic gubernatorial primary is next Tuesday, and increasingly looking like a two-person race.

Gillum is running third for all three groups, but eight to 10 percentage points behind Levine in each. Palm Beach businessman Jeff Greene is lagging in the low- to middle-teens for support, and Winter Park businessman Chris King has all but stalled in the single digits.

Fifteen percent of Florida Democrats say they are still undecided about their choice for Governor, hardly enough to make a difference for anyone but Levine or Graham.

SEA’s latest poll was of 669 Democrats, and the firm is citing a margin of error of 3.8 percent.

Levine has slipped just a bit from an identifical survey SEA Polling conducted and released last week, and so the contest between him and Graham has tightened from a Levine lead that had been in the outer edges of the margin of error to one that’s virtually a dead heat.

Gillum appears to have benefitted the most from Levine’s slip. As with other polls released this week, his position has risen, likely due at least in part to his campaigning late last week with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

However, as with most of the other recent polls, Gillum remains significantly behind the leaders.

SEA finds that voters have pretty favorable views of Levine, Graham and Gillum.  Levine got a favorable rating from 57 percent of those surveyed and unfavorable from 18. Graham’s split was 54 and 20. Gillum’s was 45 and 11.

Peter Schorsch

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including Florida Politics and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Schorsch is also the publisher of INFLUENCE Magazine. For several years, Peter's blog was ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.


  • Cynthia Keller

    August 23, 2018 at 2:34 pm

    Thank you for this poll. I want to vote for the candidate with the best chance of beating Trump aka DeSantis. No more early voting for me – too much can happen in a 24-hour news cycle!

    • Let. M. Jones

      August 24, 2018 at 1:16 am

      Either Graham or Levine can beat DeSantis. Graham will likely be stronger with women but Levine will probably be able to pull in the SFLA vote. Tough choice, but DeSantis should go down to defeat either way.

  • James Rutledge

    August 28, 2018 at 12:35 pm

    Nope! This year there is no Libertarian running for governor so the 3.8% of those votes, 223,356, will swing the election to the GOP!

Comments are closed.


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