Ron DeSantis leads Andrew Gillum in bellwether Pasco County

A popular guy: Ron DeSantis’ already rosy approval numbers look even rosier in a new poll from the Florida Chamber.

Though most statewide polls are showing Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum with a lead in the gubernatorial race, Pasco County voters are leaning decisively toward Republican nominee Ron DeSantis.

A St. Pete Polls survey measuring voters’ opinions on the two Pasco County Commission up for grabs in two weeks also took the temperature of the Pasco electorate when it comes to the gubernatorial contest. The top-of-ticket question found DeSantis with a significant lead over his Democratic rival as of Oct. 22.

The Trump-backed former Congressman was the pick for 52 percent of voters while Gillum earned 44 percent support.

DeSantis’ lead edges up to 53-44 percent among those who’ve already cast a ballot, the case for about three-tenths of respondents. Among those yet to vote, his lead matches the overall result of 52-44 percent.

Though the poll only measured Pasco, the county is to Florida what Florida is to the nation: A fairly reliable bellwether.

In 2014, for instance, the county was an accurate reflection of the state: Gov. Rick Scott won re-election over former Gov. Charlie Crist by less than 3,000 votes out of the 161,250 cast.

Pasco doesn’t always nail the margins, but it’s backed the winning horse in almost all statewide races this century. The gubernatorial race was more lopsided in 2010, but nevertheless, the county went four-for-four with its Guv and Cabinet selections.

Of course, all those races were won by Republicans, as all but one of the 20 state-wide state level elections have gone for 20 years. That one Democratic victory? Alex Sink for CFO in 2006. Well, Pasco rebuffed Republican nominee Tom Lee and backed the winning candidate in that race, too.

Whether Pasco keeps up it’s streak, or it breaks it after a Ken Jennings-level run remains to be seen. Democrats have topped the polls in Florida in most elections before inevitably falling short on Election Day, and with questions of Hamilton tickets and Costa Rican vacays taking up a couple news cycles, Pasco might just be on to something.