Latest coronavirus model predicts fewer deaths in Florida

Flag of the state of Florida with burned out hole showing Coronavirus name in it. 2019 - 2020 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) concept, for an outbreak occurs in Florida, USA.
An estimated 112 deaths a day at peak.

A University of Washington coronavirus pandemic model showed a gloomy outlook for Florida just days ago, but a new update offers a less dire outcome.

The widely influential model now predicts the Florida theater of the pandemic will peak on April 26, five days later than UW predicted earlier in the week. The pushed-back date was accompanied by a steep reduction in expected deaths.

On April 7, estimates predicted upward of 240 Floridians a day would die from COVID-19. As of Saturday, the grim approximation has been halved. The most likely estimate, 112 deaths a day, is also significantly lower than The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projection from late last month.

The lower rate, 112 deaths a day, will lead to 4,000 Florida deaths by early August. Still traumatic, though two-fifths less so than the 6,770 deaths predicted in Tuesday’s appraisal.

The stated death rate and toll is the most likely outcome, UW says. A wide range still exists for each.

The darkest timeline could see the new coronavirus claim 320 Florida lives a day, with as many as 10,000 dead before the pandemic subsides. The current most favorable outcome predicts 25 deaths a day and 1,218 lives lost.

Another optimistic sign: Health care infrastructure will bend, but not break. Not even under the maximum load predicted in the Institute’s model.

Coronavirus patients would take up 6,400 hospital beds in the most likely scenario, just over 30% of the state’s capacity. In the worst case, coronavirus patients would fill 90%. The model doesn’t track the number of ventilators in Florida, but it projects as many as 1,040 will be needed.

High-end predictions indicate ICU beds could be in short supply. Demand could top 3,400, double the number available. The most likely model, however, would see 1,250 patients in the ICU.

The less-stark prediction could be an indication that the social distancing and stay-at-home order issued by Gov. Ron DeSantis, as well as local orders issued in many counties, have started to produce results.

Florida Department of Health data has shown a slowdown in case counts, from a to-date peak of 1,300-a-day last week to around 1,100 for the past few days.

As of Saturday morning, DOH reports 18,494 coronavirus cases statewide, with 438 deaths and 2,528 hospitalizations.

Drew Wilson

Drew Wilson covers legislative campaigns and fundraising for Florida Politics. He is a former editor at The Independent Florida Alligator and business correspondent at The Hollywood Reporter. Wilson, a University of Florida alumnus, covered the state economy and Legislature for LobbyTools and The Florida Current prior to joining Florida Politics.


  • Vito

    April 11, 2020 at 9:27 pm

    According to your article Florida will have the second total deaths over 4000 to New the nation.

    I think you model is total bull and it’s purpose is to scare seniors. Why would deaths in Florida be so high when we are in a near total lockdown and the beaches are closed
    No rentals; little or no flights from New York; New Jersey, no Canadian or European travel to the state; many hotels shut down or at 5% Occupancy

    Plus we are also testing; testing, testing

    How bad is this model your looking out???? I hope I am right and you are wrong; and if so what does to say for the mathematical geniuses that are predicting this gloom and doom

  • Danny

    April 11, 2020 at 10:58 pm

    Unfortunately there has been very limited testing thus far.
    Most all volume testing has only been available in the major metropolitan areas of Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, and the Miami areas.

    The in lying areas of the state such as the panhandle, central Florida, and central southern counties have been excluded from even moderate testing.

    In the next couple of weeks the governor is going to open up less restrictive testing in these areas. Bringing a higher volume of testing not previously available.

    This will reveal a major increase in recognized active cases hospitalizations and death.

    The estimate that is reasonable is that there are currently 10 times more active cases in the fiscally ignored counties by this governor than are actually being accounted for.

    I hope that my estimates are wrong; with that being said I am sure that I am not.

    As with everything in life just follow the money and in this case the the major test sites open to people in the last month.

    I voted for this governor and I respect his position and challenges. However he has proven in this case to be a money puppet and a typical politician playing into the money and not the people of Florida.

    • Charlotte Greenbarg

      April 13, 2020 at 8:05 am

      You’re a far left troll pretending to have voted for the Governor.

  • Sonja Fitch

    April 12, 2020 at 9:38 am

    Bs Desantis lies and suppressed numbers from AFL and prisons! More will die from Desantis. Test test and report the damn facts. The sooner the real curve will flatten. We ain’t anywhere close to apex. Social distance wear a damn mask and WASH your Hands !!!

    • Charlotte Greenbarg

      April 13, 2020 at 8:06 am

      Another parrot squawking the party lies about the Governor

  • Don

    April 12, 2020 at 10:54 am

    Where are the stats on FLU deaths every year, which usually runs around 40,00? I have a sneaky suspicion that regular flu is being commingled with the Coronavirus…. right now the stats look tame compared to influenza and pneumonia cases each year….. sorry don’t trust governments. Too many ways for people to get rich during these times. Government printing presses are mortgaging our future and no one seems to care…..

  • Alex A. Cobo

    April 12, 2020 at 9:16 pm

    You may be correct about the OFFICIAL death count. HOWEVER, the REAL death count may be much, much greater.
    In my Key Biscayne zip code, we have almost 60 official reported cases, but personally know of several families with active Covid 19 cases which have not been officially tested, and whose doctors have indicated there is no need to test unless their conditions become serious or their jobs require testing before they go back..
    We also know of many seniors and others who are sick with Covid symptoms, and have been tested privately.
    Not to mention the thousands of ALF’s, and non official assisted living locations that may not have the means to test their sick or dying residents.
    You also need to take a look of pneumonia death rates, which seem to be greatly increased in places where they are reported. When the person is 89, in a smaller or remote facility or home, nobody is in a rush to test.
    There also seems to be no urgency by the State to test, nobody wants their numbers to look worse than they already are.

Comments are closed.


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