Rep. Jennifer Webb leads her Republican challenger by nearly 10 points, according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls released Tuesday.
The poll shows Webb with 49.5% support compared to just 40% support for Linda Chaney.
While the margin is large, and outside the poll’s 4.1% margin of error, it’s less than the nearly 15-point advantage former Vice President Joe Biden has in the district against President Donald Trump. Biden leads in House District 69 55.5% to 41%.
The district, which includes parts of Pinellas County including the south Gulf beaches, west St. Petersburg and Gulfport, has a razor-thin edge for Democrats, who comprise 35.6% of the electorate while Republicans hold 35.3%.
However, that narrow advantage is evaporated when considering turnout tendencies. Of Republicans, 38.3% are active voters, those who have voted in at least one election in the past four years, while only 37.8% of Democrats have voted in the last four years.
The poll shows Webb claiming a large share of Republican voters with 23% planning to cast a ballot for her over the Republican. Meanwhile, Chaney only claims support from 10% of Democrats.
Webb also leads among White voters 49% to 41%. Black voters overwhelmingly are breaking for Webb with only 9% supporting Chaney.
Webb leads in every age demographic, with her largest lead among those age 30-49. There’s a nearly 12 point spread among those voters.
Younger voters, those between 18 and 29, favor Webb 42% to 35%. Older voters 50-69 favor Webb 49% to 40% and seniors 70 and older break for Webb 49% to 41%.
The topline numbers in the House contest are paralleled by Gov. Ron DeSantis‘ standing in the district, with St. Pete Polls finding 41% approve of his job performance and 52% disapprove.
Webb’s lead is just outside the share of undecided voters, which is 11% in the poll.
Webb first won election in 2018 against Ray Blacklidge by six points. She lost four years ago to then-Republican incumbent Kathleen Peters, now a Pinellas County Commissioner, 43% to 57%, a similar margin to Webb’s now lead as an incumbent.
In 2016, the district broke for Trump 49% to 46%, showing yet another shift in support for the President as he seeks reelection. The latest polling shows a nearly 18 point shift away from Trump in the district, a trend that is happening countywide. A previous St. Pete Polls survey showed Biden with a 13 point advantage in Pinellas, a 15 point difference from Trump’s victory in the county four years ago.
St. Pete Polls also found nearly three-quarters plan to cast their ballot by mail, including 77% of Democrats, 77% of independents and 69% of Republicans.
The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday among 567 likely voters.