Staff Reports
Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
Bettors still see Joe Biden as the favorite a week out from Election Day, but President Donald Trump is rallying in some key swing states, including Florida.
Oddsmaker BoyleSports said Tuesday that Trump’s odds of winning the Sunshine State have improved from 6/4 to 4/5, meaning he now is considered the favorite in Florida.
“Florida is always one of those states we have our eyes glued to on election night, and we can barely separate Biden and Trump now after support for the incumbent increased over the last couple of days,” said Lawrence Lyons, a spokesperson for BoyleSports.
“Trump was trailing in the popularity stakes there earlier this week, but is now the marginal favourite at 4/5 from 6/4 as customers are almost split 50/50 over which way Florida will go.”
BoyleSports noted that the shift — which took place over the past 24 hours — marks the first time Trump has been seen as the favorite to win Florida since the market opened.
Florida is seen as crucial for Trump’s reelection chances. A victory here would give him room, especially if Biden lives up to the strong odds bettors are giving him to flip Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, both of which went for Trump four years ago.
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Gov. Ron DeSantis’ job approval numbers ticked up a notch in a new Florida Atlantic University poll.
FAU’s Business and Economics Polling Initiative asked 937 likely voters how they felt about the Republican Governor nearly two months into his term, finding him underwater 42%-46%.
Though the percentage of Floridians supporting him fell by a point, the number of voters who disapprove of him fell by 2 points. He now holds an overall minus-4 approval rating, up from minus-5 earlier this month.
That’s still a notch above Trump, who sits at a minus-5 among the same set of likely voters.
As for the slate of constitutional amendments on the Florida ballot, voters prefer Amendment 2, which would gradually raise the minimum wage to $15, by a 62%-30% margin.
While Amendment 2 is faring well, the open primaries amendment is sitting just shy of the 60% it needs to make it into the state’s governing document.
The measure, appearing on the ballot as Amendment 3, is opposed by 29% say they are outright opposed, leaving 13% undecided — plenty enough to push it over the top depending which way they break.
FAU BEPI conducted the poll Oct. 24-25. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Coronavirus Numbers
Positive cases:
— 776,215 FL residents (+4,226 since Monday)
— 10,096 Non-FL residents (+72 since Monday)
Origin:
— 6,916 Travel related
— 292,745 Contact with a confirmed case
— 7,559 Both
— 468,995 Under investigation
Hospitalizations:
— 48,512 in FL
Deaths:
— 16,709 in FL
Voters are Voting
Total ballots cast: 6,440,993
Voted by mail: 3,907,285
— Democrats: 1,828,177
— Republicans: 1,213,630
— NPA/Other: 865,478
Voted early: 2,533,708
— Democrats: 860,690
— Republicans: 1,176,216
— NPA/Other: 496,802
Evening Reads
“How the Senate GOP’s right turn paved the way for Amy Coney Barrett” via Burgess Everett, Marianne LeVine of POLITICO
“Win or lose, it’s Donald Trump’s Republican Party” via Elaina Plott of The New York Times Magazine
“CNBC poll: Joe Biden leads Trump by double digits nationwide” via Drew Wilson of Florida Politics
“Biden holds a steady lead in Nevada, which Trump hopes to flip” via The New York Times
“As Trump warns of economic disaster, Wall Street grows giddy about Biden” via Ben White of POLITICO
“Twitter labels Trump post about mail ballots as ‘disputed’ and ‘misleading’” via Myah Ward of POLITICO
“Florida Influencer Poll: Biden wins White House, but Trump takes Florida” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
“Florida’s top prosecutor once sued Trump. Now she’s fighting for his reelection.” via Gary Fineout of POLITICO
“It’s complicated: Winning Florida’s crucial Latino vote means talking to people from many lands” via Brittny Mejia of the Los Angeles Times
“In Orlando, Barack Obama jabs that Trump is ‘jealous of COVID’s media coverage.’” via The New York Times
“Florida Influencer Poll: ‘All Voters Vote’ proposal headed to defeat” via Jacob Ogles of Florida Politics
“Florida Democrats expand push to fix flawed mail-in ballots” via Matt Dixon of POLITICO
“As election looms, Miami elder-care facility says residents didn’t get mail for a week” via Aaron Leibowitz of the Miami Herald
“Florida COVID-19 deaths rise by 57” via the staff of the Florida Times-Union
“Coronavirus outbreak hits Fort Lauderdale City Hall” via Susanna Bryan of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
“Florida monthly revenue tops post-pandemic estimate by $230M” via Matt Dixon of POLITICO
Quote of the Day
“I don’t look at it as an election issue. I look at it as a right or wrong issue. There are people who are struggling out there.” — First Lady Casey DeSantis, on the state’s mental health and opioid crisis initiatives.
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