Republican Traci Koster leads Democrat Jessica Harrington by nearly 5 points, according to the most recent survey from St. Pete Polls released Tuesday.
Of the 443 likely voters surveyed, 48% are backing Koster while 43% plan to vote or have already voted for Harrington. Only 9% of voters remain undecided.
Koster’s lead is narrowly within the poll’s 4.7% margin of error at 4.5%.
But the lead could continue to grow. Of those polled, 83% of Democrats have already cast their ballot while only 68% of responding Republicans have yet to vote.
Still, Harrington enjoy’s slightly more support from across the aisle, with more than 15% of Republicans saying they plan to vote for her, 1 percentage point more than Democratic voters who plan to vote for Koster. Harrington leads among Democrats with 76% support while Koster leads Republican voters with 77% support.
Koster’s lead over Harrington is larger than President Donald Trump’s lead in the district, which is just 3 points at 50% to 47%.
Koster leads among White voters 51% to 40%, but trails among Black voters 22% to 70%. Harrington also leads among Asian or Pacific islanders, but trails among Hispanic voters 52% to 44%.
White voters make up the majority of the district’s electorate at 73% while Black voters make up 5% of the district and Hispanic voters 12%.
The district covers parts of northeast Pinellas County including Safety Harbor and Oldsmar and northwest Hillsborough County including Citrus Park.
Republicans hold a 7-point voter registration advantage with 39% of voters registered with the GOP and 31% as Democrats. Independents make up 29% of the district.
Republican voters are also more active in the district with 42% having voted at least once in the past four years compared to just 33% of Democrats who have.
Still, Harrington is performing better this election than she did two years ago when she lost by 7 points to then-incumbent Jamie Grant.
As of Oct. 16, Harrington had a cash advantage heading into the home stretch before next Tuesday’s election. Harrington had more than double the cash on hand as Koster, who entered the race late after Grant resigned, at about $82,000 to $40,000. But Koster is getting major help from the Republican Party of Florida, which is responsible for almost all of the nearly $26,000 in-kind support she’s received. Harrington has had less than $10,000 in-kind support, mostly from the Florida Democratic Party.
The poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday.