Poll shows Joe Biden winning in Florida, battlegrounds, but with lead over Donald Trump narrowing
Joe Biden. Image via AP.

Joe Biden
Democrat leads in all battleground states but it's getting tighter.

A poll released on Election Day of battleground states shows the Presidential race tightening in Florida.

The Change Research poll, commissioned by CNBC, shows Joe Biden winning 51% of likely voters and Donald Trump at 48%. Pollsters report a margin of error of 3.45% in Florida. The poll found no statistically significant support for any third-party candidate and just 1% of voters were unsure who they will pick this year.

That leaves the Democrat polling with majority support in Florida, but by a thin amount within the margins. More significant, The Change poll found the race tightening in all six battleground states identified by the outfit: Florida, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All six states went to Trump in 2016.

Across all six states, Biden holds a 50% to 46% lead on the incumbent President. But Trump’s support rose 3 percentage points in Florida from the last time Change polled the state two weeks ago. He also gained two points in Arizona and one point in Wisconsin, though Biden sits at or above 50% in all three states.

Battleground state voters report stronger faith in Trump’s handling of the economy, with 51% approving of his performance there, and 42% citing Trump’s accomplishments on the jobs front as his chief achievement in office. But 53% of voters think Biden would do a better job leading the country through the pandemic, with 54% disapproving of Trump’s response to the crisis.

The poll confirms this election will ultimately be a referendum on Trump. Of Biden supporters, 54% said they are chiefly voting against giving the President a second term, and just 46% say they are casting a vote more because of Biden’s agenda.

Notably, most of the voters in battleground states have their votes already locked in. About 82% of Florida voters polled already cast their ballot, as have 85% in Arizona and 81% in North Carolina. However, only 40% of the Pennsylvania vote was already in before the poll was taken, between Oct. 29 and Nov. 1.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


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