Poll: Donald Trump leads Ron DeSantis by 20 among Florida Republicans

New polling from the Florida Atlantic University Mainstreet PolCom Lab tells a familiar story about the GOP presidential race in the state.

Right now, it’s Donald Trump’s to lose.

The former President leads Gov. Ron DeSantis, 50% to 30%, in a poll of 315 likely voters in next year’s GOP Primary.

No other candidate is close. Author Vivek Ramaswamy has 4% support, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina has 3%, and Chris Christie, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson and Mike Pence all have 2%. An additional 7% of respondents are undecided.

Though some polls have shown DeSantis struggling with female voters compared to male voters, here the Governor actually performs marginally better with women here. He’s down just 19 points with them, as compared to a 21-point deficit with men. Among nonbinary Republican Primary voters, however, Trump leads 65% to 24%.

Meanwhile, different regions show radically different voter inclinations.

DeSantis actually has an edge in Duval (37% to 36%) and is competitive in Northwest Florida (down 45% to 41%) as well as Southwest Florida (down 37% to 35%). But in the Tampa area, DeSantis is down 56% to 31%. In the Orlando area, DeSantis trails 45% to 29%. And in Miami-Dade, where DeSantis just spoke at the Lincoln Day dinner this weekend, the Governor is down 70% to 11%.

Turning to income levels, Trump leads with all except for those respondents making $200,000 or more a year. With that group, DeSantis leads 39% to 25%.

Trump leads by 39 points with Hispanic voters and 26% among Black voters. He also leads by 27 points with White voters who haven’t gone to college. But among White voters who did go to college, DeSantis leads marginally, 41% to 40%.

“The poll highlights Donald Trump’s quite durable support. He does especially well with White working-class voters, who have consistently formed a steadfast base for the former President,” said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science at FAU. “This persistent support continues to bolster Trump’s strong and steady position within the party.” 

In a two-way race between Trump and DeSantis, meanwhile, the former President leads 54% to 37%. DeSantis takes the Duval region, 45% to 43%, in that scenario. He also still leads with the college educated and those making more than $200,000 a year.