Peter Schorsch
Saturday will help shape the framework of the presidential race: Look for new clues in South Carolina’s Republican primary about Donald Trump‘s appeal — and perhaps a narrowing of the GOP field.
Here is a live-blog of the latest developments.
12:28 a.m. – Sen. Marco Rubio has finished second in South Carolina’s Republican primary, according to complete but unofficial results. Rubio edged out Texas Sen. Ted Cruz by less than two-tenths of 1 percentage point.
10:15 p.m. – Donald Trump won at least 44 of the 50 delegates at stake in the South Carolina primary while Hillary Clinton won a majority of the delegates in Nevada caucuses.
Trump and Marco Rubio were in a tight race in two congressional districts for the remaining six delegates. Trump leads the overall race for delegates with 61.
Ted Cruz has 11 delegates and Rubio has 10.
It takes 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination for president.
In Nevada, Clinton won at least 19 delegates and Bernie Sanders won at least 15.
Clinton is far ahead in the overall delegate count because of early endorsements from superdelegates, the party leaders who can support the candidate of their choice.
Including superdelegates, Clinton has 503 delegates and Sanders has 70.
It takes 2,383 delegates to win the nomination.
10:10 p.m. – Former President George W. Bush released a statement Saturday evening on his brother, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, suspending his campaign for the presidency:
“Tonight I talked to my brother and congratulated him on his campaign for the presidency. I told Jeb how proud I am of him and his staff are running a campaign that looks to the future, presented serious policy proposals, and elevated the tone of the race. Jeb’s decision to suspend his campaign reflects his selfless character and patriotism. I was moved by Jeb’s concession speech. Laura and I are proud of Jeb and Columba for the character in class that brought to this important campaign.”
9:50 p.m. – Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is highlighting his Iowa win over Donald Trump on Feb. 1 as he urges conservatives to unite behind him against the Republican front-runner. Cruz says that there is “only one strong conservative is in a position to win this race,” adding that it’s why Donald Trump “relentlessly attacks us and ignores the other candidates.”
9:40 p.m. – Texas Sen. Ted Cruz says he is the only campaign that “has beaten and can beat” billionaire Donald Trump, who won the South Carolina primary. Speaking to a crowd of supporters in Columbia, South Carolina at the close of the state’s Republican primary day, Cruz warned that the “Washington cartel” is growing nervous with the successes of the conservative movement.
Cruz is praising Jeb Bush, who ended his bid for the White House Saturday, as “a man who didn’t go to the gutter” and engage in insults and attacks.
9:30 p.m. – Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick says Sen. Ted Cruz is “standing tall” despite losing the South Carolina primary to Donald Trump.
Patrick told Cruz backers Saturday night that Cruz has “taken every punch they’ve thrown, and he’s standing tall.”
Cruz was battling with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for second place in South Carolina.
Patrick says “regardless of what the pundits say, it’s a two-man race” between Cruz and Trump. And Patrick says Cruz is the only candidate in the race with a proven conservative record “who will take on the Washington cartel.”
Patrick predicted a Cruz win in Texas, which votes on March 1.
9:18 p.m. – Donald Trump is thanking his supporters for delivering a commanding first-place finish in South Carolina Saturday, cementing his status as the Republican presidential front-runner. And he’s predicted big wins in the races ahead.
“Folks, let’s go, let’s have a big win in Nevada … Let’s put this thing away,” he tells hundreds of screaming supporters at a victory party in a Spartanburg. “And let’s make America great again.”
Trump also offered his congratulations to rivals Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who are in a tight race for second place, drawing boos from the crowd. “Just one minute, come on, one second, alright?” he urged them, as he explained how tough it is to run.
But Trump notably made no mention of Jeb Bush, who announced he is suspending his campaign earlier in the evening. Trump has hammered Bush throughout the campaign.
9:15 p.m. – Marco Rubio says the Republican presidential primary has become a three-person race between himself, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. The Florida senator is predicting that he will win the GOP nomination after performing well in the South Carolina primary. As results stream in, Rubio and Cruz are fighting for second place behind winner Trump.
Rubio is congratulating Trump for his victory in South Carolina’s primary. He’s also praising former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who dropped out after a disappointing finish in South Carolina.
Rubio is returning to his central campaign themes of a strong U.S. military and a new generation of conservatism. He says tonight he’s a step closer to being the next president.
9:10 p.m. – Donald Trump‘s wife is breaking her usual silence and talking up his candidacy after he won the South Carolina Republican primary.
The Slovenian-born former model is occasionally spotted with her husband on the campaign trail but rarely gives any lengthy remarks.
8:59 p.m. – Donald Trump is telling supporters after his victory in the South Carolina Republican primary that “when you win, it’s beautiful.” The billionaire businessman says running for president is tough, nasty and mean. But he also says it’s beautiful, too.
But despite the kind words, Trump says he goes “back to war tomorrow.” He’s predicting he will do “very, very well” in the next Republican contest in Nevada.
Trump predicts that as Jeb Bush and other Republican candidates eventually drop out, many of their supporters will switch to his side.
8:45 p.m. – Bush out: After a disappointing fourth place finish in South Carolina, former Florida governor Jeb Bush suspends his presidential campaign. “The presidency is bigger than any one person,” Bush said. “Our head of state is not above us.” Bush ended a bid that drew a staggering level of financial support from donors but failed to win over voters angry with Washington and leery of sending another member of the Bush family to the White House.
In a speech to supporters, Bush said he refused to bend to political winds and stood his ground, saying “policy matters.”
A teary-eyed Bush says he’s proud of the campaign he ran to unify the country and advocate conservative solutions. America needs to elect “a servant, not the master,” he added.
The son and brother of former presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush entered the race to huge expectations in June, and quickly fueled them with fundraising.
But he quickly slid in the polls behind some of his more outspoken Republican rivals such as billionaire businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who have billed themselves as anti-establishment alternatives to the early front-runner.
Following disappointing performances in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Bush pinned his hopes on South Carolina, a state where the Bush name has maintained some clout. But Bush was unable to break into the top three in South Carolina. He would likely have faced pressure from GOP leaders and donors to drop out had he stayed in the race.
8:30 p.m. – The final results aren’t in, but John Kasich‘s campaign is already claiming victory in the so-called “governor’s bracket.”
Kasich’s chief strategist John Weaver says in a statement that the race will now be a four-man contest between Kasich, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. His comments are similar to ones he made this morning on a conference call with reporters.
Despite Weaver’s declarations of victory, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush remains in the race and it’s still unclear whether Kasich will beat him in the South Carolina contest.
Kasich’s supporters are gathered at a hotel in Wakefield, Massachusetts, the state where Kasich spent Saturday campaigning rather than remaining in South Carolina.
8:15 p.m. – It’s been a night mostly lacking of cheers or applause at the Ted Cruz South Carolina victory party.
The only brief moment of awakening for the otherwise cautious Cruz supporters came when Fox News broadcast a live shot from his party, prompting cheers from the crowd.
8:00 p.m. – Progressive activist group American Bridge responds to Donald Trump‘s “easy win” in South Carolina by pointing out that the GOP establishment’s chances of doing anything to halt his momentum are “quickly dwindling.”
According to a statement released Saturday night: “Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich‘s race to the right — a futile effort to siphon votes away from Trump — has left irreversible damage. Whether it’s tax giveaways to millionaires that blow multi-trillion-dollar holes in the deficit, anti-immigrant platforms that refuse a pathway to citizenship, or backward and dangerous rhetoric on women’s health, there is little difference between the far right and extreme far right Republican presidential candidates.
“At each step of the way, GOP insiders attempted to explain away the significance of Trump winning. In Iowa, it was Midwestern evangelicals who didn’t represent the country at large. In New Hampshire, it was independents who don’t have as much sway as in other states.”
The statement then levels blame at RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, claiming he is “running out of excuses,” now that their anointed candidates failed to “find a legitimate path to the nomination.”
Rubio, even after spending more in the state than any other candidate and picking up key endorsements from South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, Rep. Trey Gowdy, and Gov. Nikki Haley, it wasn’t enough to stop Trump.
“Save a contested convention that’s looking less likely with each passing primary,” the statement says, “the Republican establishment is straight out of answers — so they’d better get back to wooing Trump.
“The Party of Trump continues to lurch onward, all while threatening the Republican’s slim majority in the Senate. No wonder the GOP establishment gets more nervous with every Trump win.”
7:45 p.m. – Donald Trump‘s supporters erupted into cheers as they learned their candidate had won South Carolina’s GOP primary. Supporters gave each other high-fives and held Trump signs high above their heads as they celebrated. Some chanted “USA! USA!”
Hundreds of people are gathered in a ballroom at the Spartanburg Marriott for Trump’s watch party, where they’re snacking on cubed cheese and crudité, and sipping beers from plastic cups.
Trump is expected to deliver a victory speech later tonight.
7:28 p.m. – Surprise! (not really) – Donald Trump is the winner of the South Carolina primary, with an estimated 33 percent of the vote. It is a second-straight victory for the billionaire real estate mogul after his first-place finish in New Hampshire.
Cruz and Rubio are in close race for second. Exit polls taken in South Carolina found that about three-quarters of Republican voters support a temporary ban on Muslims who are not American citizens from entering the United States. That’s one of Trump’s signature proposals.
Exit polls taken in South Carolina found that about three-quarters of Republican voters support a temporary ban on Muslims who are not American citizens from entering the United States. That’s one of Trump’s signature proposals.
A majority of voters looking for an outsider candidate supported Trump, providing a boost to the first-time candidate for office.
7:15 p.m. – Donald Trump aimed to solidify his standing as the Republican presidential front-runner on Saturday as South Carolina voters cast their ballots after a week of fierce campaign exchanges in an increasingly caustic race.
The outcome could also have serious implications for more establishment-friendly candidates who are hoping for strong finishes to stave off questions about whether they should even continue.
Terrorism and the direction of the economy were among the top issues for GOP voters, according to exit polls. In a year of the angry voter, more than half in South Carolina said they felt betrayed by Republican politicians.
The survey also found that three-quarters of voters supported a temporary ban on Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the country, one of Trump’s policies.
Trump has appeared confident as he’s traveled the state this week, holding rallies and town halls that have drawn thousands.
“I actually think I know your state now better than you do. I have been all over the place for the last four days. I know every blade of grass I’ve flown over from here to there,” he told a rally crowd in Sumter as he implored his supporters to get out and vote.
6:30 p.m. – Early numbers arrive – ABC News releases preliminary exit poll results from the South Carolina GOP primary, showing record turnout by conservatives.
Primary voters are showing vast support for Donald Trump’s stance on a number of issues, including limiting Muslims from entering the country and deporting undocumented immigrants.
Preliminary numbers show three-quarters of the state’s primary voters support temporarily banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the United States, higher numbers than those GOP voters supporting the idea in New Hampshire (65 percent).
As for deporting undocumented immigrants, the support was somewhat weaker but still more than 40 percent. Of the top five candidates, Trump was picked as the best to handle the economy – double that of Cruz, his closest competitor on the issue.
Other exit poll data show possible record-breaking turnout: Eight in 10 South Carolina GOP primary voters in South Carolina call themselves conservative, with four in 10 identifying as very conservative – the highest numbers in the state going back as far as 1992.
6:05 p.m. – For South Carolina Republican primary voters, terrorism is the top issue that mattered — selected by about a third.
The economy and government spending were each picked by nearly three in 10. Even so, three-quarters of the voters said they were very worried about the direction of the nation’s economy, and more than 4 in 10 said billionaire Donald Trump would be best at handling the economy.
However, Trump and Cruz are both seen as candidates who would best handle an international crisis by about a quarter of voters.
Only about 10 percent selected immigration as the most important issue. Asked specifically what should be done with illegal immigrants working in the United States, the voters were evenly divided. Republican voters were far less divided on the issue of allowing Muslims into the country. About three-quarters support a temporary ban on Muslims who are not American citizens from entering the United States.
The survey was conducted for AP and the television networks by Edison Research with voters leaving 35 randomly selected precincts throughout South Carolina.
5:55 p.m. – Kasich says if he spent the day in South Carolina he’d be doing nothing more than yelling at people on their way into the polls saying “Hey, vote for me.”
With that in mind, he’s campaigning in Massachusetts and Vermont instead. The two states hold primaries on March 1.
“If somebody yelled at me as I was going to the polls, I’d vote against them,” he joked with reporters after a town hall in Worcester, Massachusetts.
He says he wishes he could have spent more time in South Carolina, but that he and his team “did everything we could do.”
5:50 p.m. – Bernie Sanders is conceding the race in Nevada in a phone call with Hillary Clinton.
The Vermont senators said in a statement Saturday that he congratulated Clinton on her victory. He says he’s proud of his campaign and expects to leave Nevada with a “solid share of the delegates.”
Sanders is touting his campaign’s work to bring working people and young voters into the process. He says he believes his campaign has “the wind at ours backs” heading to the Super Tuesday contests.
Sanders is thanking Nevadans for their support.
5:45 p.m. – Hillary Clinton‘s aides cast her victory in Nevada’s Democratic caucuses as a sign that her new focus on increasing opportunities for minorities and poorer Americas — what her team calls her “breaking barriers” agenda — was resonating.
As the race has turned to primary contests in states with more diverse Democratic electorates, Clinton has increasingly decried the issue of “systemic racism” and highlighted her plans to combat the problem.
She started the week with a policy address in Harlem focused squarely on issues impacting the African-American community. In Nevada, she’s worked to woo Latino voters with promises to tackle immigration reform in the first 100 days of her administration, should she win the White House.
5:35 p.m. – Hillary Clinton‘s win in Nevada means she will pick up most of the state’s delegates.
With 35 at stake, Clinton will gain at least 18. Sanders will pick up at least 14. Three delegates remain to be allocated, based on votes in the congressional districts.
The results of the caucus are the first step in determining delegates who are expected to support candidates at the national convention.
To date, Clinton remains far ahead in the overall delegate count due to early endorsements from superdelegates, or party leaders who can support the candidate of their choice, no matter whom voters back in primaries and caucuses.
Including superdelegates, Clinton now has at least 501 delegates and Sanders at least 69.
It takes 2,383 delegates to win the nomination.
5:25 p.m. – As a small gathering of Nevada supporters waited for her appearance in a Caesar’s Palace ballroom, Hillary Clinton took to Twitter to say thanks.
“To everyone who turned out in every corner of Nevada with determination and heart: This is your win,” she wrote.
Back at her Brooklyn headquarters, aides cheered as she was announced the winner. Her campaign manager, Robby Mook, ran her 2008 effort in the state, giving the contest special significance for some of the staff.
5:15 p.m. – The end is near? – Good read: Ed O’Keefe of The Washington Post asks the $64,000 question: “Is this it for Jeb Bush?”
For Bush’s final pre-primary South Carolina event, O’Keefe paints a bittersweet scene: “Staffers and volunteers hugged warmly, realizing that they had just one more day to convince Republicans to pick their guy. The hugs came as aides strongly denied reports that staffers are shopping their resumes in anticipation of the campaign’s conclusion.”
Polling continues to suggest Bush’s goal of following his father and brother into the White House is getting further away. Trump in first place, Cruz solidly in second and Bush trailing fellow Floridian Rubio and barely ahead of Kasich.
There are plans to fly to Nevada on Sunday and to hold events in Las Vegas and Reno, O’Keefe writes. From there, the schedule is less certain, but aides talk about plans to campaign in Texas and elsewhere.
5:15 p.m. – Hillary Clinton has won the Nevada Democratic caucuses, rebounding after a second-place finish to Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire.
The victory for the former secretary of state over the Vermont senator gives her two wins to one in the race for the Democratic nomination.
Clinton eked out a win in the Iowa caucuses before Sanders posted an overwhelming victory in New Hampshire’s primary.
Surveys of caucus-goers taken as they entered caucus sites showed that older women turned out in force to support Clinton, pushing her to victory despite her continued struggles to attract young women.
The competition heads next to South Carolina, which holds its Democratic primary next Saturday.
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4:30 p.m. – Reply hazy, try again – Marc Caputo tweets an update on his “best guess” in South Carolina: Trump 30, Cruz 24, Rubio 22, Bush 10, Kasich 9 and Carson 5. “Bush certainly could go higher (15%?) and Rubio could swap with Cruz for second,” he adds.
Updated best guess for SC, based largely on select polls:
Trump 30
Cruz 24
Rubio 22
Bush 10
Kasich 9
Carson 52/2
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) February 20, 2016
4:15 p.m. – Ummmm, no: The Hill reports that Bush will not be joining the Donald Trump ticket he if should end his campaign after the South Carolina primary. “No,” Bush said curtly to reporters, drawing laughs. “Let’s be clear, I don’t think he would ask me.”
4 p.m. – South Carolina Congressman Joe Wilson cast his ballot for Rubio in the GOP presidential primary Saturday. “I believe (Rubio) is somebody who can bring a positive change, which is needed, to Washington,” Wilson told Emma Dumain of the Post and Courier. “I also appreciate his stand for strong national defense, and he’s very consistent we’ve got to have a strong national defense.”
Nevertheless, Wilson, a previous supporter of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, hinted he will not hit the campaign trail for Rubio, as had Carolina Republicans Trey Gowdy, Tim Scott and Nikki Haley. Wilson added he won’t be watching returns at Rubio headquarters Saturday night, as he has a family birthday celebration instead.
I’m not against anyone,” Wilson said. “There are so many credible candidates.”
3:36 p.m. – Hundreds of voters are lining up to see Kasich — in Massachusetts, not South Carolina. Kasich is spending the day of the South Carolina Republican primary campaigning in Massachusetts and Vermont, states that vote on March 1. He’s about to kick off an afternoon town hall in Worcester, Mass., following a morning meeting with in Burlington, Vermont. He’ll watch the South Carolina primary results with supporters in Boston. A cultural center in Worcester is packed with a Kasich — in Massachusetts, not South Carolina. Kasich is spending the day of the South Carolina Republican primary campaigning in Massachusetts and Vermont, states that vote on March 1. He’s about to kick off an afternoon town hall in Worcester, Mass., following a morning meeting with in Burlington, Vermont. He’ll watch the South Carolina primary results with supporters in Boston. A cultural center in Worcester is packed with a standing-room only crowd waiting for Kasich and a line of voters is still waiting outside to enter the venue.
3:32 p.m. – A major Muslim civil rights group says Republican presidential candidate Trump‘s telling of a discredited story about a U.S. general shooting Muslims with bullets dipped in pigs’ blood could incite violence. The Council on American-Islamic Relations National Executive Director Nihad Awad says in a statement that Trump’s “inflammatory rhetoric has crossed the line from spreading hatred to inciting violence.”
Trump was defending his support of waterboarding and other enhanced interrogation techniques at a rally in South Carolina Friday night when he told the largely unsubstantiated tale of Gen. John Pershing allegedly halting Muslim attacks in the Philippines in the early 1900s by shooting them with bullets dipped in pigs’ blood. Pigs are considered unclean by Muslims and some other religious groups.
3 p.m. – Hello, goodbye? – Bush stays tightlipped about continuing the race if he performs poorly in South Carolina, even as rumors persist on the collapse of his presidential campaign.
“I’m going to work as hard as I can till 7 p.m. I’m not going to feed the speculation of people who have no clue about my campaign,” the Los Angeles Times reports Bush said during a visit to a polling place in Daniel Island, South Carolina. “My campaign is doing great,” he added.
Bush appeared at the small seaside town joined by his son, Jeb Jr., and South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham. Recent polling shows Bush holding steady in fourth place, and POLITICO notes that campaign staffers have begun to start sending out resumes. Donors are also worrying about damage to the Bush brand if he continues.
2:26 p.m. – Trump is questioning whether President Barack Obama would have attended Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia‘s funeral Mass “if it were held in a mosque.” Trump says on Twitter that it’s “very sad” that Obama didn’t attend Saturday’s service in Washington.
..again, this is partly a guess. Polling avgs I ran showed Rubio ever-so-slightly edging/basically tying Cruz for 2nd 19.1-18.9% and 2/3…
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) February 20, 2016
And finally, Caputo tweets that he discarded recent robocall polling showing a late Rubio surge, and gave Cruz an extra point “for ground game.”
“Again: just a guess.” So, don’t shoot the messenger.
1:20 p.m. – Part of the game: The Wall Street Journal’s Patrick O’Connor calls Marco Rubio’s football talk in South Carolina “the greatest pander of all.” Rubio, following Gov. Nikki Haley — the Clemson graduate who is his highest profile supporter in the state — teased the reverence for her alma mater. “Driving in, you would think we were in Jerusalem,” Rubio joked Friday. “’There is the stadium. There’s The Hill,’” he said while passing campus landmarks.
Later, at a Clemson rally attended by hundreds of supporters, Rubio brought the kicker: “I’m here to ask for your vote for one simple reason: Everyone else in the Republican primary was rooting for Alabama … I don’t know if that was true or not, but in this campaign, it doesn’t matter.” Sums it up nicely.
1:01 p.m. – Tweetag – @FiveThirtyEight: Our final polls-plus forecast for today’s GOP primary in South Carolina:
12:45 p.m. – Always a good time for fundraising: It’s the big day in South Carolina for Tim Scott, one of two African-Americans in the U.S. Senate. Scott is also a recent convert to Rubio’s presidential campaign. A new primary-day email fundraising pitch tells how Scott, with his “friend Trey Gowdy,” spent the past couple weeks crisscrossing the state to campaign for Rubio, whom Scott calls “the man who needs to be the next president of the United States.”
South Carolina is only the beginning, Scott says, and the race is far from over. “In fact,” he writes, “it’s really just a minor skirmish compared with what’s to come.” An even bigger day comes March 1, and with more in next couple weeks after that.
“Marco’s going to need a huge amount of resources to build up his national campaign — that’s why we’ve set an ambitious goal of raising $300,000 by the time the polls close tonight.” Who can argue with ambition, especially on primary day?
Scott adds that not only is Rubio a “good friend and would make an awesome president,” but the stakes couldn’t be higher in 2016. “After two terms of President Obama, we need a conservative Republican nominee who has a vision for restoring the American Dream that’s defined my life, and Marco’s,” Scott says. “Will you go here to help make sure Marco gets to be that candidate?” Primary votes may be one thing, but cold hard cash is quite another.
12:33 p.m. – Tweetage – @Isikoff: How they do it SC. Here’s @TedCruz mailer on @MarcoRubio:
12:25 p.m. – John Kasich‘s presidential campaign is already claiming a victory of sorts in South Carolina. A top strategist, John Weaver, tells reporters that however the Republican candidate does in Saturday’s primary, Kasich’s showing will be enough to “drive somebody else out of the race.” Weaver says he’s expecting two candidates to drop out over the next week — including Bush. Weaver says that “for all practical purposes, there’s no path forward” for the former Florida governor.
12:03 p.m. – Tweetage – @RealDonaldTrump: Remember that Marco Rubio is very weak on illegal immigration. South Carolina needs strength as illegals and Syrians pour in. Don’t allow it
11:06 a.m. – Google search trends show a sudden surge of interest in both Cruz and Rubio on primary day. These searches may not reflect the final outcome, but they could shed light on those voters who are still undecided before heading to the polls, notes Taegan Goddard.
10:45 a.m. – Bathroom battle: McKay Coppins of BuzzFeed News reports on a robocall going out to South Carolina primary voters Friday night calling Trump “pro-LGBT” and a “culture war appeaser.”
“It’s about transgender bathrooms in your child’s school,” a narrator says. “It’s about tearing down our Judeo-Christian values.” The robocall plays a clip of an interview by NECN reporter Sue O’Connell – who is a lesbian – asking Trump about the expansion of gay and lesbian rights if he is elected.
“Well, you can,” Trump responds. “And look, that’s your thing, and other people have their thing. We have to bring all people together.”
“It’s not about tolerance anymore,” the narrator says. “It’s about mandatory celebration. It’s about forcing people to bake cakes and photograph gay weddings. Forcing clergy to officiate. It’s about transgender bathrooms in your child’s school. It’s about tearing down our Judeo-Christian values. It’s about tearing down our America.”
The call concludes: “Ted Cruz for president — now, before it’s too late.”
10:36 a.m. – Bush says he’s “excited where we stand” as he faces a critically important test in South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary. Bush says he’s going to “work hard for the day” and await results after the polls close at 7 p.m. He says “it’s interesting that a lot of people claim they’re undecided this late.” Bush tells reporters outside a polling location in Greenville that “to be able to beat expectations would be helpful. I think we’ll do that.” And his take on the prospects of a President Donald Trump? Bush says the billionaire businessman “can’t win, plain and simple.”
10:30 a.m. – With friends like this: While Cruz bashes press corps, his campaign serves donuts, answers. Hadas Gold of POLITICO says: “Cruz, whose campaign wins high marks for strategic discipline and execution, seems to intimately understand that he needs the media … Cruz gaggles with reporters nearly every single day on the trail. And if he stops for a few days, and reporters begin to complain, the gaggles start back up. Cruz has held off-the-record drinking nights with reporters. And he knows how to create the media moments … that will drive the cycle, if only for a few hours.”
10:28 a.m. – Stat of the Day – Part 1: $13.1 million. The amount Right to Rise, the pro-Bush super PAC, has spent on TV ads in South Carolina since the start of the race, according to figures compiled by the Wesleyan Media Project. That’s more than the Carson, Cruz, Kasich, Rubio and Trump campaigns combined.
10:19 a.m. – Tweetage – @MViser: For all practical purposes, there is no path forward for Governor Bush,” says Kasich’s @JWGOP. “That campaign will come to an end today.” … Kasich strategist said at top of call there wasn’t much to say about the Bush campaign — and then said an awful lot about the Bush campaign
9:56 a.m. – Will there by a “Haley effect” in South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary? Jason Sims — a teacher from Mount Pleasant — says he made a last-minute decision to vote for Rubio, and that Gov. Nikki Haley‘s endorsement was “a big deal.” Sims say he was “kind of riding the fence” until Haley said she was backing the Florida senator.
9:45 a.m. – Flag fight: A super PAC supporting Cruz is coming out with a new radio ad and robocalls blasting both Trump and Gov. Nikki Haley over the decision to remove a Confederate flag from a memorial near the South Carolina capitol, Katie Zezima writes in The Washington Post. “Put it in a museum, let it go,” Trump is heard saying. Both the ad and the robocall points out that Trump supported Haley’s decision to take down “the battle flag” last July from a memorial located the statehouse grounds. “People like Donald Trump are always butting their noses into other people’s businesses,” the robocall says. “Trump talks about our flag like it’s a social disease.” The robocall and add were produced by the pro-Cruz Courageous Conservatives PAC, part of a $25,000 media buy. The call went out to about 180,000 homes Friday night, and the ad was launched Friday on radio stations throughout South Carolina.
9:36 a.m. – Tweetage – @PatriciaMazzei: Happy Election Day from Columbia, SC, where a portion of a single TV ad block went Rubio-Rubio PAC-Cruz-Bush PAC-Kasich-Rubio PAC
9:15 a.m. – Nate Silver takes one last look at the South Carolina polls: “But unlike in the general election, where the polling average usually gives you a fairly precise estimate of where the race will end up, the South Carolina polls could still wind up being way off. We warned you about this before Iowa, where the polls mispredicted the order of finish, and likewise before New Hampshire, where they were closer to the mark (although hardly perfect). We’re probably going to have to keep warning you until the Republican race settles down to only two or three major candidates — multiway races are historically associated with much larger polling errors.”
7:04 a.m. – Rubio’s campaign emails its supporters: “Today is the day! After countless hours of hard work by Marco and supporters like you, voters in South Carolina start making their voices heard in the First in the South Primary at 7 AM this morning. Marco has done his part to spread his vision for a New American Century with South Carolinians, now it’s time for us to keep doing ours!”
6:33 a.m. – RedState’s Leon Wolf writes expect a big surprise from Rubio today: “At the end of the day, I am not going to predict that Rubio will overtake Trump, although it would not stun me if that happened. I will predict that Rubio will surprise people by finishing less than 10% behind Trump, and possibly less than 5% behind Trump.”
12:01 a.m. – Cruz and Carson met in a storage closet last night, reports the Daily Beast: “The meeting, called by Ted Cruz in an attempt to mend fences with Ben Carson ahead of the South Carolina primary, was held on Thursday night before the Conservative Review convention. The two huddled in the unusual venue for nearly 20 to 25 minutes, as Carson’s Secret Service detail stood outside, according to a Republican operative who witnessed the strange scene. … Carson, whose campaign has spent the weeks after Iowa blasting Cruz for lying to voters in the Hawkeye State, agreed to meet him for five minutes, according to a source close to Carson’s campaign, to try to put to bed the issue of his dirty campaign tricks in Iowa, during which Cruz’s campaign told caucus-goers that Carson had dropped out of the race.”
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11:00 p.m. – Politico reports that “Several Jeb Bush campaign workers are already shopping their résumés with Florida political consultants as expectations mount inside his team that their candidate won’t push on after South Carolina.” … Bush’s reaction to the story, during interview with Megan Kelly: “With all due respect … I don’t read Politico. I think it’s trash.”
7:30 p.m. – Don’t stop me now: Despite what happens in South Carolina, Bush is pushing forward, says Eliza Collins of POLITICO. Bush’s campaign released its post-South Carolina schedule Friday, a preemptive effort to alleviate concerns of supporters who worry he will drop out of the race after a poor primary showing this weekend.
7:15 p.m. – Tricks, no treat: Rubio’s campaign is circulating an email to supporters warning voters of “dirty tricks” by Cruz’s campaign. “We fear the worst dirty tricks are yet to come,” writes Alex Conant, Rubio’s communications director, vowing not to allow what happened in Iowa to Ben Carson to also happen to “Marco in South Carolina.”
5:43 p.m. — Rep. Mark Sanford, the former South Carolina governor of Appalachian Trail fame and currently on his second run as a congressman, endorsed Cruz on Friday. The backing provides a late boost in southern South Carolina.
4:45 p.m. — A new Opinion Saavy poll in South Carolina finds Trump leading with 27%, followed by Rubio at 24%, Cruz at 19%, Bush at 11%, Carson at 8% and Kasich at 7%.
3:30 p.m. — Trump says he could ‘run the table’ if he wins South Carolina from USA Today: The New York businessman and Republican front-runner is poised to win the South Carolina primary on Saturday, and he says a big victory in the Palmetto State will open the road for him to take the GOP presidential nomination. ‘If we win in South Carolina, we feel we could run the table,’ [Donald} Trump told a crowd of cheering supporters in Walterboro, a line he has repeated throughout the state this week. Some political analysts are skeptical, as are Trump’s Republican primary rivals: Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Carson. All are chasing Trump across South Carolina and the country, each hoping for an eventual one-on-one showdown with the front-runner, starting with a surprise showing in South Carolina.
2:15 p.m. — Hot take via Amy Walter: “What Rubio needs more than anything, however, is a solid victory over his “establishment” rivals Bush and Kasich. A solid showing in South Carolina by Rubio would put intense pressure on both, but especially Bush, to drop out. Should Rubio fail to get past Bush by a significant margin it would suggest that: 1. endorsements are meaningless these days; and 2. Rubio has deeper, more fundamental problems than just Bush and Kasich standing in his way.”
2:12 p.m. — Good read — “Bush machine running of fumes” via POLITICO: Some of Jeb Bush’s most steadfast allies think Saturday might be the end. Donors, who poured millions into his campaign and super PAC, have stopped giving – one refusing a direct request to raise $1 million this week. Bush himself is hitting the phones, pleading for patience with his most influential supporters. … [E]ven before [S.C. Gov. Nikki] Haley’s endorsement [of Rubio], several long-time Bush donors were emailing each other Tuesday morning, expressing a collective readiness to intervene and tell Bush, depending on his finish here Saturday night, that his time is up.”
9:49 a.m. — A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll in South Carolina finds Trump leading the GOP field with 28%, followed by Cruz at 23%, Rubio at 15%, Bush at 13%, Kasich at 9% and Carson at 9%. Last month, Trump held a 16-point lead over Cruz.
Material from the Associated Press was used in this post.
