Peter Schorsch
Donald Trump is ahead among Republicans in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds her leads but loses ground among Democrats in all three states, but Vice President Joseph Biden and Dr. Ben Carson are the best general election candidates in these key swing states, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.
Clinton and Trump continue to have the worst overall favorability ratings among all voters of any of the leading candidates, and the lowest scores for being honest and trustworthy, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich both are losing their native son support among Republicans, while the leading contenders for the Republican nomination in these swing states are non-government candidates Trump and Carson and to a lesser degree Carly Fiorina.
“Those who were waiting for Donald Trump’s campaign to collapse will need to wait longer – at least in the three key states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
Trump tops the Republican primary list in Florida with 28 percent, up from 21 percent in Quinnipiac University’s August 20 Swing State Poll. Carson has 16 percent with 14 percent for Rubio, 12 percent for Bush, 7 percent for Fiorina and 6 percent for Cruz. No other candidate is over 2 percent and 10 percent are undecided.
Among Republicans, 29 percent say they would “definitely not support” Trump.
Clinton leads the Democratic field in Florida with 43 percent, with Sanders and Biden tied at 19 percent each and 13 percent undecided. Only 13 percent would not vote for Clinton.
In general election matchups:
• Biden gets 45 percent to 42 percent for Carson and edges Bush 46 – 42 percent. He tops Fiorina 49 – 38 percent and gets 46 percent to 43 percent for Rubio. Biden beats Trump 52 – 38 percent.
• Clinton gets 43 percent to 44 percent for Bush and gets 45 percent to Carson’s 43 percent. She gets 44 percent to 42 percent for Fiorina and 44 percent to Rubio’s 45 percent. Clinton tops Trump 46 – 41 percent.
• Sanders slips behind Bush 45 – 41 percent and loses to Carson 46 – 40 percent. He gets 41 percent to 42 percent for Fiorina. He trails Rubio 46 – 41 percent and beats Trump 46 – 41 percent.
Florida voters give Clinton a negative 44 – 51 percent favorability rating and say 59 – 35 percent that she is not honest and trustworthy.
Trump gets a negative 35 – 57 percent favorability rating as Florida voters say 54 – 37 percent he is not honest and trustworthy.
“The generally more energized Republican party members, who backed former Gov. Bush and Sen. Rubio when they ran for office in the Sunshine State, are deserting the establishment candidates for the outsiders – specifically Trump and Carson,” Brown said.
From September 25 – October 5 Quinnipiac University surveyed: 1,173 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 461 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 411 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
