Bob Sparks
One year ago not many figured northeast Floridians would be using the words “Mayor-elect Lenny Curry.” Yet, that is precisely the water cooler chatter not only in Jacksonville, but among the political class around the state of Florida.
Curry, the former chairman of the Republican Party of Florida, was a long shot to defeat incumbent Mayor Alvin Brown, the city’s first African-American mayor. Curry pulled off the improbable with a 6,000-vote victory out of 200,000 cast.
This race drew the interest of state and national pundits and consultants. Why? The short answer is presidential politics, but it also involves the quest for formulas for success up and down the ticket.
The political class is analyzing whether Curry’s win gives Republicans any advantage next year in the quest to capture Florida’s 29 electoral votes or to hold a U.S. Senate seat. Since Jacksonville and Duval County usually go Republican (Barack Obama lost this area twice), a Democrat winning twice in non-presidential election years would certainly give the GOP some cause for concern.
To underscore its importance, prominent national figures came to Jacksonville to either raise money or campaign for their party’s candidate. Bill and Hillary Clinton came for Brown, while former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush campaigned for Curry.
Conventional wisdom holds that having a big city mayor from your party in charge gives that party’s 2016 nominee an advantage. That may be true, but there are other factors in play.
An election just a few months before a major national campaign begins in earnest provides a perfect opportunity to test messages and rehearse get-out-the vote techniques. Such a race allows future combatants to gain allies and practice tactics.
Before becoming dean of the College of Communications at Boston University, Tom Fiedler covered national and Florida politics for the Miami Herald and later served as executive editor. I recall a particular column he wrote in 1996 as a special election for a seat in the Florida House of Representatives loomed not long before that year’s general election.
Fiedler made a rhetorical comparison between that special election and the Spanish Civil War of 1936. In that conflict, German and Italian “consultants” and “advisers” worked with rebels led by Gen. Francisco Franco while the Soviets, French and other allies aligned with the Spanish government.
Florida Democrats and Republicans were conducting their smaller and non-lethal version of the Spanish Civil War in 1936, wrote Fiedler. Heavy hitters from around the state thought the special election would go a long way toward determining which party would control the House of Representatives after the fall election.
Fiedler was onto something. The Republicans won that special election, which did indeed serve as a prelude. While Bill Clinton was winning Florida and re-election, the Republicans won control of the House for the first time since the 19th century.
The Curry/Brown race provided teachable moments. For most of his term, Brown earned high approval marks for his willingness to work with Republicans, including Gov. Rick Scott on job creation. When Curry entered the race last year, Brown held a 70 percent approval rating.
Curry ran as an unabashed Republican conservative. He and his consultants made the race about issues where Republicans happen to always poll well: the city’s finances and public safety. Those issues were heavily on the mind of voters.
Brown tried to continue his approach of outreach over partisanship, but saw the election slipping away. Toward the end of the campaign, he began talking about core Democrat issues of raising the minimum wage, equal pay for women and making college affordable.
Race became a factor in the latter stages, prompting Curry to directly ask Brown on live television if the mayor considered Curry a racist. This was in reference to a Brown flier saying Curry would “turn back the clock and keep African-Americans from voting.”
Brown encountered what national Republican candidates face every two or four years; base voters staying home when a candidate is thought to be soft on an issue or issues important to them. The pivot toward his base showed a clear sign he was in trouble.
This year, Brown received 706 fewer votes from Democrats than in 2011. In contrast, by hammering a conservative message throughout, Curry earned 6,205 more votes (his margin of victory) from Republicans than 2011 nominee Mike Hogan.
Civil wars and consultants aside, that is the clear message to take from the Jacksonville election. Be yourself and tell voters who you are and what you stand for. They will react accordingly.
That is also why we are talking about Mayor-elect Lenny Curry.
Bob Sparks is a business and political consultant based in Tallahassee. Column courtesy of Context Florida.
