Steve Schale’s 15 quick tidbits on the new 2015 census estimates

Here are the 15 quick notes I put out Thursday about the new census data.

More coming on all this soon:

1. 2015 census estimates are out today. Some really interesting things in Florida. First, population up almost 1.5 million to just over 20.7 million.
2. Florida is growing at a slightly slower rate than 2000-10, but is adding more people. We will push 22 million by 2020.
3. Big Picture, Florida is getting really diverse, really quickly.
4. Tampa and Miami media markets have almost the exact same population — both roughly 23 percent of state. Orlando is growing faster, though, now 20 percent.
5. Hispanics make up 51.1 percent of the population growth. Non-Hispanic whites made up 19.4 percent.
6. Another way to look at: in five years, Florida’s Hispanic population grew 14.9 percent. Non-Hispanic Black 8.9 percent, non-Hispanic White 2.5 percent.
7. In five years, Hispanics have grown from 22.5 to 24 percent of population. Non-Hispanic white dropped from 58 percent to 55.3 percent.
8. At the current pace, Hispanics will be close to about over 26 percent of population at next census, or 5.7 million of the state’s 21.7 million residents. Compare this to 18 percent in 2000.
9. Miami (which includes Broward) media market is now majority Hispanic. Three biggest markets for Hispanic growth: Miami, Orlando, and Tampa.
10. In fact, there are almost more new Hispanics just in the Orlando market than there are new people of all races across all of I-10.
11. Hispanic growth faster on I-4 than Miami. Hispanic grew 18.6 percent on I-4, 11.6 percent in Southeast Florida.
12. In fact, over 47 percent of the population growth on I-4 can be attributed to Hispanics.
13. Counties where the Hispanic share of the population is growing fastest: Osceola, Broward, Orange, Polk and St. Lucie counties.
14. This all lines up almost exactly with voter registration change. Since 2008, Hispanics make up 53 percent of voter registration growth.
15. All this means one thing: Florida in 2016 will have a more diverse electorate than 2012 — and more diverse yet in 2020. #NotGoodForTrump.

Steve Schale is a Democratic political consultant and state lobbyist based in Tallahassee.