A.G. Gancarski
In what has become a tradition in Jacksonville politics, a well-timed poll dropped Monday, just days before the City Council had a big decision to make.
A difference this time: instead of dropping from the political committee of Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, it came from “A Safe Jacksonville,” the political committee of Sheriff Mike Williams.
The poll showed positives for the Sheriff and his proposal almost across the board: a 67 percent approval rating for Williams; 68 percent in favor of the Sheriff’s proposal to add 100 new cops, and 50 percent of respondents vowing to vote against Councilmembers who oppose adding new police; reducing crime as the top issue among Duval voters.
And while the poll was paid for by Williams’ committee, the tactic was similar to that used by Curry in the past — appropriate, as Tim Baker, a key Curry consultant — conducted the poll.
So why now?
Because it was necessary. City Council had to be sent a message — while the legislative branch may be the policy making body, the Sheriff (and the Mayor) ran on a public safety platform. And while it is uncertain whether the new officers will bring that public safety, what is certain is that the current force shortfall won’t get it done.
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When Williams endured his budget hearing with the Jacksonville City Council Finance Committee earlier this month, the Sheriff — for the first time in his tenure — looked politically vulnerable.
Williams took questions on issues ranging from a patrol cop who recently killed a suspect but is still working to whether or not his department even needs the new hires, or can even train them.
While the four Democrats on the committee made their points, also notably skeptical of taking the Sheriff’s claims at absolute face value was Republican Lori Boyer.
At the end of the hearing, the proposal to add new officers was up in the air — a rare rebuke for an item on the executive branch wish list.
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Williams quietly launched his political committee earlier this year, and it has raised $80,000 since then.
Fundraising until July was slow — July was a $61,000 month, a clear indication to anyone who stepped up to run against Williams in 2019 that the money race would not be a cakewalk.
However, with that July money in, Williams’ committee made the decision to deploy resources on polling.
Will the polling in itself make a point?
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The discussion going forward is like a choose-your-own-adventure book, offering multiple routes to the same destination — that of Williams getting his new hires.
Route 1: The Finance Committee sees the scales fall off its eyes this week, approving the new police in wrap-up, and offering heartwarming rhetoric about backing public safety.
That’s the easy road.
Route 2: Finance balks and the committee has to commit resources to ad buys, which could be city-wide, or could be very specifically targeted to Council districts or demographic subsets therein.
Pressure could get very real very quickly, and Council experienced that just a few months ago, during its bout of handwringing over voting in favor of Curry’s pension reform package.
Will Council choose the hard road?
Or will they see the data and political reality and go along with the program?
This week’s budget hearings will tell the tale on that, and will also tell the tale of whether or not dissidents on City Council ultimately are all bark and no bite.
