Survey shows razor close race between Chip LaMarca and Linda Thompson Gonzalez

Republican Rep. Chip LaMarca is in for an election night nail-biter according to a new survey from St. Pete Polls.

The survey shows LaMarca earning 46% of the vote as his Democratic challenger, Linda Thompson Gonzalez, sits right behind at 45%. The remaining 9% of voters inside House District 93 are undecided.

That 1-point lead is well within the survey’s margin of error of 5.6 percentage points. The poll ran from Oct. 17-18 and sampled 309 likely HD 93 voters.

A 5.6-point margin of error means several election night outcomes are possible — from LaMarca coasting to a second term to Thompson Gonzalez cruising to a comfortable win. The closeness of the race may surprise some given LaMarca’s 2018 margin and his continued fundraising dominance this cycle.

LaMarca won the HD 93 seat — which covers parts of Broward County including Lighthouse Point and Lauderdale-by-the-Sea— by 7 points. in 2018. Armed with an incumbency advantage, he has since racked up plenty of cash. As of Oct. 2, LaMarca has nearly $321,000 in his war chest. Thompson Gonzalez is holding just over $96,000. That lead held even after LaMarca outspent Thompson Gonzalez by more than $100,000 in the most recent reporting period.

LaMarca’s district is the only district fully contained inside deep blue Broward County to be represented by a Republican. Prior to LaMarca, Republican George Moraitis held the seat for eight straight years before vacating the seat due to term limits.

Democratic candidates Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson did both win the district in 2018, however. That shows Thompson Gonzalez has room to make the race more competitive this cycle, as Democrats have shown significant enthusiasm with a presidential contest atop the ballot.

As for that race, the St. Pete Polls survey found HD 93 voters preferring Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden over Donald Trump by a 54%-43.5% margin. Nearly 52% of voters also disapproved of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, as compared to 43% who approved of his job leading the state.

More than half of HD 93 voters — 53% — said they plan to vote by mail this election. Many have moved to utilize that option amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Democrats have shown a higher propensity to vote by mail. Republicans are expected to outperform Democrats when it comes to in-person voting.