A new CBS News Battleground Tracker poll shows Joe Biden with a 50%-48% lead over President Donald Trump in Florida.
That’s well within the survey’s margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, meaning the state is still very much up for grabs. But it adds to a series of polls, including a recent St. Pete Polls survey, showing Biden as the slight favorite in the presidential race here in Florida.
The CBS News survey also reinforces a sharp split among Democrats and Republicans when it comes to voting early. Among voters who had already cast their ballot, Biden holds a 61%-37% lead over Trump.
Those results are essentially flipped for respondents who have not yet voted. Trump leads among that demographic by a 59%-40% margin.
The data show Republicans have plenty of votes outstanding, meaning Democrats’ current lead in the number of votes cast will continue to shrink. Still, those Democratic votes are already banked, meaning any dip in enthusiasm for the President in the final stretch could prove fatal for his Florida chances.
Should Biden win Florida, that would seal off most plausible paths to victory for the Trump campaign. Biden still has several routes to victory — either through the Midwest or with wins in typically red states such as Arizona or Georgia — should he lose out in Florida.
CBS News also polled voters in Georgia and North Carolina. Those results saw Georgia at a 49%-49% tie between Biden and Trump. The Democratic nominee led in North Carolina 51%-47%, though that lead was also within the survey’s margin of error.
Florida voters gave Biden a 49%-41% lead when it came to who they expect to better handle the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden holds similar leads in Georgia and North Carolina.
There was also a wide gap between Biden backers and Trump supporters in terms of concern regarding the outbreak. A majority of Biden supporters in Florida — 56% — said they were “very concerned” about contracting the coronavirus. Just 13% of Florida Trump voters said the same.
Biden holds a 63%-37% lead over Trump with Hispanic voters in Florida. He’s also outperforming 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Clinton with White voters and has 92% support among Black voters.
Trump still leads with Florida voters aged 65 and older by a 53%-44% margin. That’s down from his margin in 2016. According to CNN exit polls, Trump won that demo in Florida 57%-40%.