Staff Reports
Last Call – A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.
First Shot
And, poof – former President Donald Trump’s swing-state polling lead has disappeared.
Multiple polls released in the past 24 hours show Trump is now trailing Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee.
In Georgia, a purpling state that was key to President Joe Biden’s victory four years ago, Harris has rocketed to a one-point lead, 48%-47%, according to the latest measure from Public Policy Polling.
The one caveat: The poll was sponsored by the Democratic-leaning group Progress Action Fund. That said, a YouGov poll released Wednesday and sponsored by The Economist – a center-of-the-road publication if ever there was one – has Harris up by two, 46%-44%.
In both cases, Harris’ lead is within the margin of error. When Biden was in the race, however, Trump’s leads weren’t. FiveThirtyEight’s Peach State polling average had the GOP nominee up by a touchdown on July 21, the day before Biden called it quits and endorsed Harris.
While Trump is still leading in the Arizona polling average, the margin is slimmer than a tomato sliced by a Showtime Six Star knife. ActiVote has him up by three, while Harris – the pollster, not the politician – has him up by four. Meanwhile, Ipsos/Reuters, Morning Consult, and FAU say it’s a tie ballgame or that Harris is in the lead.
The trend is spilling over into Pennsylvania according to PPP, which pegged the race with a 48%-47% advantage for Trump. The real shocker is Michigan, where Morning Consult shows the former President’s consistent lead over Biden is transmuting to a potential 53%-42% Democratic rout. Just a week ago, Fox News-sponsored polling found the race tied at 49%.
It’s possible this is a honeymoon phase for the new Democratic front-runner, or perhaps it’s a backlash to Trump’s historically unpopular pick for a running mate. It’s also possible Harris could kill her momentum with her own “meh” Veep selection – she is expected to announce the name by Aug. 7.
Evening Reads
–“Kamala Harris created a huge wave of energy. How long can Democrats ride it?” via Lisa Lerer, Maya King and Reid J. Epstein of The New York Times
–“Hostile Donald Trump takes the stage at Black journalists’ conference” via Irie Sentner and Brakkton Booker of POLITICO Magazine
–”The 40 must-see lines from Trump’s interview with Laura Ingraham” via Chris Cillizza of So What
–“School taught JD Vance to see a divided nation – and to use that division” via Hannah Notanson of The Washington Post
–“Young Black voters might be swing voters now” via Dan Hopkins of FiveThirtyEight
–“Project 2025 shakes up leadership after criticism from Democrats and Trump, but says work goes on” via Ali Swenson and Lisa Mascaro of The Associated Press
–“Trump shooting a ‘failure on multiple levels,’ acting U.S. Secret Service chief says” via Shauneen Miranda of the Florida Phoenix
–“Some Florida hospitals on the brink of blood shortage after cyberattack” via Christine Jordan Sexton of Florida Politics
–“Florida, other states scrambling after judge rejects Title IX argument” via News Service of Florida
–“Prominent Florida Republican endorses recreational marijuana measure” via Douglas Solule of the Tallahassee Democrat
—“‘A lower quality of life for all’: Law enforcement lines up against legal marijuana in Florida” via Skyler Swisher of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Quote of the Day
“Supporting Amendment 3 is a common-sense decision that prioritizes individual freedom, health, safety and economic growth.”
– Republican Sen. Joe Gruters, in support of the recreational cannabis amendment.
Put it on the Tab
Look to your left, then look to your right. If you see one of these people at your happy hour haunt, flag down the bartender and put one of these on your tab. Recipes included, just in case the Cocktail Codex fell into the well.
Assuming he’s a fan of brandy, Jimmy Patronis’ campaign against “so-called media monitoring groups” nets him a Censored Mule.
The half-dozen state legislative candidates who picked up Associated Builders and Contractors endorsements would be delighted to sip on a Screwdriver – or whatever other construction-related cocktail they’re in the mood for.
There were a couple of drinks in the running here – a Blood and Sand, Bloody Mary, or White Russian would’ve fit the bill – but we decided to pour OneBlood executives a shot of Russian Standard after hackers from the Motherland tore through their firewall.
Breakthrough Insights
Tune In
Busy day ahead for Florida Olympians
A Florida tennis star continues his dream of winning an Olympic medal on Thursday.
Austin Krajicek of Tampa continues his run in the men’s doubles competition, playing with Rajeev Ram. The duo knocked off the Spanish team of Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals on Wednesday.
Krajicek and Ram will face the Czech team of Tomas Machac and Adam Pavlasek in the semifinals (6 a.m. ET, Peacock). If they win, they will advance to the gold medal match on Saturday. A loss and they’ll play for bronze on Friday.
Also on Thursday, the finals of the men’s 200-meter backstroke (2:38 p.m. ET, Peacock). Jacksonville’s Ryan Murphy. Murphy won bronze in the 100-meter backstroke earlier in The Games. Murphy won gold in the event in Rio in 2016 and took silver in the Tokyo Games three years ago.
In addition to the finals, heats of the men’s 50-meter freestyle (5 a.m. ET, Peacock), the fastest event in the water, are held. Green Cove Spring’s Caeleb Dressel is among the contenders for the podium. Dressel won gold in the Tokyo Games in the event and already has earned gold in the Paris Games in the 4×100 meter freestyle relay.
Two Florida sailors will also compete on Thursday. Erika Reinecke of Ft. Lauderdale is scheduled to begin the sailing competition, while Dominique Slater will compete in the semifinals of women’s windsurfing.
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Last Call is published by Peter Schorsch, assembled and edited by Phil Ammann and Drew Wilson, with contributions from the staff of Florida Politics.
