Janelle Irwin Taylor
A poll unattributed to any potential candidate went out Friday to Tampa voters asking about the 2027 mayoral race, which is already gathering attention.
While the poll in many ways is like any other — it asks about issues important to voters and where they stand on potential candidates — one question in particular stands out.
In the question asking respondents about their opinion of Bill Carlson, a current Tampa City Council member, the only responses available are “very favorable,” “somewhat favorable,” “neutral,” or “no opinion.”
There is no option to indicate an unfavorable opinion.
Asked if he sent the poll or knew who did, Carlson said he did not. He added that he assumes it was former Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, who is widely expected to run again in 2027, because it used the same platform as a previous survey Carlson attributed to Buckhorn.
It’s well known that Carlson and Buckhorn are foes, and that’s putting it mildly. Carlson reminded that he hasn’t filed for the race and does not have a campaign. He added that if he had sent the survey, it would have asked about his own unfavorables.
The omission of any “unfavorable” option could be a coincidence, or perhaps a typo, but it is quite curious considering that most other candidates listed in the poll bear no such omission.
Anthony Pedicini, a GOP political consultant who — at least so far — doesn’t have a potential candidate in the race, questioned whether it was an honest mistake. He argued instead that it looked like a poll intentionally formulated to reach a certain conclusion — in this case, that Carlson has broad voter support.
“Whoever did this poll, whoever is going to use this poll, it’s incredibly invalid and designed to get one result,” he said.
Other potential candidates listed in the poll include Buckhorn, former Rep. Ed Narain, Hillsborough County Property Appraiser Bob Henriquez and Tampa City Council member Lynn Hurtak.
In each question asking about voters’ opinions of those hypothetical candidates, there is an “unfavorable” option.
It’s worth noting that the question asking about Narain includes two options for “somewhat favorable,” with the second appearing to be where “somewhat unfavorable” should be. That suggests that the absence of unfavorable options for Carlson is more of an oversight than an intentional “oopsie.”
And the questions are not consistent. For example, the question about Hurtak includes options for both “very favorable” and “very unfavorable,” “somewhat favorable” and “somewhat unfavorable,” as well as “neutral” and “no opinion.”
Under the same question for Henriquez, “neutral” is listed twice.
The survey was sent through Survey Monkey, not through a credible pollster.
In addition to favorability, the survey also asks whether voters vote regularly in Tampa municipal elections held in March; whether they plan to live in Tampa for more than the next five years; and whether they want the city’s next Mayor to follow in Mayor Jane Castor’s footsteps, protect neighborhoods from development, reduce city spending, fees and taxes, or embrace development and “make Tampa shiny and new.”
The survey further asks who voters would cast a ballot for if the election were held today; whether they think the city is affordable; whether they think traffic is too congested in the city; whether roads are well-maintained; and whether the city is prepared for the next hurricane. Those questions are presumably meant as message tests for a hypothetical campaign.
But the survey gets at least moderately anti-Buckhorn with the 14th question, which lists “a little about these potential candidates” and then asks respondents who they would vote for given that information.
The candidate information provided for all candidates except Buckhorn are positive. Henriquez is described as a leader who has modernized his office “by cutting costs, reducing staff and improving efficiency.” Hurtak is described as supporting multimodal transportation and affordable housing; Narain as being an active leader; and Carlson as a community advocate who “was against the toilet to tap drinking water initiative.”
But for Buckhorn? Not quite as nice. The survey describes him as the “former Mayor of Tampa known for focusing on downtown redevelopment and supporting tax increases to fund public infrastructure and city services.” The tax increase bit isn’t likely to sit well with fiscal hawks in the city.
Further suggesting that the survey was sent by a pro-Carlson group or person, two of the three questions about who voters would choose in a head-to-head matchup — something that would happen in a runoff if no candidate received more than half the vote — include Carlson on the ticket. One question includes Carlson with Henriquez, the other with Buckhorn. The third question asks about Henriquez and Buckhorn.
No one has officially declared candidacy for Tampa Mayor in 2027, but speculation is already swirling about a potential Carlson/Buckhorn matchup.
A poll from Mercury Public Affairs showed Buckhorn far outperforming others in a five-way hypothetical race including Carlson and Hurtak, as well as Sen. Jay Collins and House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell. Driskell has since announced her candidacy for Senate, while Collins is rumored to be under serious consideration by Gov. Ron DeSantis for Lieutenant Governor. That poll did not include Henriquez or Narain.
It put Buckhorn 27 points ahead of his closest competitor in the survey, Carlson, at 49% to 22%.
