Janelle Irwin Taylor
A new poll shows a tight race for Florida Governor despite a distinct voter advantage for the GOP.
The poll, conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International for Democrat David Jolly’s campaign, shows Jolly 1 point ahead of Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds and 2 points behind Paul Renner, a former Florida House Speaker who is also seeking the GOP nomination.
Against Donalds, Jolly posted 41% support, compared to 40% for the current U.S. Representative, who is running with powerful support from President Donald Trump.
Against Renner, Jolly posted 40% support, 2 points behind Renner’s 42%. Under both scenarios there are still plenty of undecided voters, with 19% unsure in a Jolly/Donalds matchup and 18% undecided when Jolly is pitted against Renner.
Results of the latest poll are within the margin of error, which is 4 percentage points.
The results are an improvement from June, when a Victory Insights poll showed Jolly trailing Donalds by 5 percentage points, with nearly 32% still undecided.
Jolly, a former U.S. Representative who served as a Republican and later dumped the GOP to become an independent, is now running for Governor as a Democrat. He’s banking on pocketbook issues to bridge the partisan divide in the state, which currently favors Republicans with a more than 1.3 million voter advantage.
The poll queried respondents about their top concerns, with 41% citing either affordability (23%), inflation (10%) or jobs and the economy (8%) as a top concern.
“Change is coming to Florida. I’ve visited with voters in town halls and communities all across Florida — red, blue, and down the middle. We’ve built a coalition of Floridians focused on solving the state’s affordability crisis in housing — a coalition that simply believes the economy should work for everyone, the government should effectively serve our communities, and we should be a state that empowers all our people,” Jolly said in a statement about the poll.
“What we also know is that Republican leaders in our state have gone too far. They’re ignoring the affordability crisis, dividing us with culture wars, and now attacking childhood vaccines.”
The poll also asked about the DeSantis administration’s plans to erase vaccine mandates in Florida, with 60% of voters opposing such a move. A plurality of voters surveyed, 43%, strongly opposed removing vaccine mandates. Meanwhile, nearly half of voters (48%) said they opposed Gov. Ron DeSantis’ plan to redraw congressional seats ahead of the 2026 Midterms.
And there’s more good news for Jolly in the poll. Broken down by party affiliation, it appears he’s drawing support from across the aisle. While Jolly earned 41% support from respondents in a hypothetical matchup with Donalds, only 34% of the poll respondents self-identified as Democrats. Republicans made up 43% of respondents, while no-party and third-party voters accounted for 23%.
It’s also worth noting that while the poll has Renner performing better against Jolly than Donalds, Renner’s chances of surviving the GOP Primary appear grim.
While 55% of Republican voters surveyed were still undecided in the race, a vast majority of those who had picked a favorite were on Team Donalds, with 37% support to just 6% support for Renner. The remaining 2% supported another candidate, which could be indicative of voters hoping former state Sen. and now-Lt. Gov. Jay Collins will hop in the race.
Jolly took to social media Wednesday to celebrate the results.
“This is more than just a number. It’s a sign that Democrats, Independents, and Republicans alike have had enough of the chaos,” Jolly wrote on X. “It’s a sign that Floridians are ready for something better.”
He noted that his campaign still has “an entire year of campaigning” and that “this race is going to be incredibly close.”
If the poll is anywhere near accurate, and the race does end up being close, it would be a huge departure from three years ago, when DeSantis walloped then-Democratic nominee Charlie Crist by nearly 20 percentage points.
The poll was taken Sept. 7-9 among 631 likely 2026 General Election voters.
