Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine and former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham are going down to the wire in what is starting to look like a two-person race in the Democratic primary battle to run for governor, with Levine holding a lead among the most likely of voters, a new poll shows.
The poll, from SEA Polling and Strategic Design, has Levine leading Graham by seven points among the most likely of Democratic primary voters, but just barely ahead of her among voters who already have cast ballots.
And the other three major Democratic candidates have fallen back, slipping toward out of reach of the top spot with voting already underway and just 13 days left before the Aug. 28 Election Day.
The SEA poll has Levine leading Graham 30 to 28 percent among those who already have voted, with Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum running a distant third with 15 percent, businessman Jeff Greene getting 14 percent; and businessman Chris King just 3 percent.
Among those voters who self-rated their chances of voting as five out of five, Levine opens up a lead on Graham, 31 percent to 24 percent, with Gillum and Greene back in the mid-to-low teens, and King still in the low single digits. Among all 600 Democratic voters surveyed by SEA, the relative standings and patterns remained the same: Levine, 27; Graham, 24; Gillum, 15; Greene, 13; and King, 3.
The poll was conducted Saturday through Tuesday, live interviews of 600 Democrats, with an overall margin of error of 4 percent. The poll was conducted for an undisclosed group of Democrats not directly affiliated with any of the five campaigns, according to SEA President Thomas Eldon.
The results show four trends from the previous two Democratic gubernatorial polls SEA conducted in early and late June, Levine and Gillum up; Graham and Greene down.
This is the first major poll publicly released since Greene launched his attack ads on Graham.
“Greene’s decision to go negative against Gwen Graham appears to have brought her back to the pack, but also seriously diminished his chances as he has dropped into the fourth place in the low teens,” Eldon stated in a memo.
Among factors still to be watched: Gillum’s grassroots campaign, aimed at stirring up voters among Democrats who normally don’t get out to primaries, especially in off-year elections; and Graham’s expectation to attract the votes of undecided women awakened by the #MeToo movement this year.
Yet they could cancel each other out. Eldon said that there appear to be “balloon” effects seen in the polling movements involving Levine and Greene as one pair, and Graham and Gillum as another: when one goes up, the other goes down, he said.