Peter Schorsch
Political prognostication is not an exact science despite what forecasters and pundits would have readers believe. Many fall somewhere between the obvious and the inane, and often take a familiar and non-threatening shape.
“The race for (insert candidate here) comes down to which campaign turns out their voters,” or some similar form. Imagine a sports reporter telling the audience a game’s winner is “the team with the most points.”
Not exactly going out on a limb, are they?
Bold predictions are more than just simple guesswork; they are to be conversation (and argument) starters. Real analysts do not restate the obvious, like some academics, but provide a reasonable outlook on the future, as well as a fresh take on the political landscape.
With that, here five bold predictions of what’s in store for Florida politics in 2014.
- The Florida governor’s race will be decided by swing voters. Just kidding! I just said that I wouldn’t write that sort of crap. However, it’s already clear how I think the race between Democrat Charlie Crist and Republican Rick Scott will end: with Crist defeating Scott. So to make this prognostication bold, I’ll predict this: Crist will never trail Scott in a poll conducted by Quinnipiac Polling Institute. No matter how much money Scott spends, no matter how many negative ads the Republican Party of Florida airs against Crist, Crist will not fall behind Scott, at least not in a Q-poll of the race.
1A. While we are discussing the gubernatorial race, I’ll make another bold prediction. This race won’t cost $100 million, as most political reporters have forecasted. The price tag, if you include the money spent by the candidates, their committees, the political parties, and the outside interest groups, will approach $200 million when all is said and done.
2. Here’s a bold prediction and we’ll know whether I am right by March: David Jolly will succeed his mentor, the late C.W. “Bill” Young, as the U.S. Representative from Florida’s 13th Congressional District. That’s right, not only will Jolly defeat state Representative Kathleen Peters in the Jan. 14 GOP primary, he will also “upset” Democrat Alex Sink because (a) Sink is not from Pinellas County; (b) voters will vent their frustration with Obamacare by voting against Sink; (c) Sink is just not a very good campaigner. All Jolly has to do to win is keep doing what he has been doing AND make sure the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee comes in with beaucoup bucks.
3. It will be a wild and woolly 2014 legislative session. I don’t know how to quantify this prediction, but this year’s session will not be the kumbaya gathering that was last year’s. One reason is that this is Speaker Will Weatherford’s swan song and if you’ve listened to him speak lately, he’s thinking big. Audaciously, disruptively big.
No one is sure what that means, but Weatherford will not be content with a session defined by lawmakers going through the motions. Second, very few state senators are terming-out or are engaged in a competitive re-election campaign. This may give them the freedom to dare greatly. Third, and I think this is an under-reported factor already at work in Tallahassee, some lawmakers see a Crist victory as inevitable and so this session may be their last chance for a while at getting certain legislation passed. Add to all of this the fact that the Legislature hasn’t gotten a lot of work done during its first Committee Weeks and I envision the 2014 session being even more crazy and hectic than usual.
4. Out of the 2014 legislative session, there will be game-changing legislation affecting gambling. Other than Dara Kam’s work for the News Service of Florida, there has been little reporting about the titanic shifts made by Senate President Don Gaetz and Weatherford regarding their openness to put proposals for expanded gambling to the voters.
Weatherford also has hinted at legislation that would require changes to gambling regulations be subject to voter approval, but only after the Legislature makes needed reforms this session. Read between the lines: The Legislature will overhaul the patchwork of laws governing card rooms, dog and horse tracks, parimutuels, etc. (that’s huge), perhaps put the idea of destination resort casinos to the voters (that’s also huge) and also say any future changes need voter approval (that’s really huge because that serves as a stick to lawmakers to eat as many carrots now regarding gaming). Look as early as this month for the first outlines of this plan to be unveiled.
5. The medical marijuana initiative will not make it on the ballot. Whether it be for a lack of verified signed petitions or the state Supreme Court not accepting the ballot language, it just makes too much sense to have a referendum on an initiative supported by 82 percent of Floridians. Even if the referendum makes its way to the ballot, don’t expect Florida to be the next Colorado. As state Rep. Katie Edwards has noted, “Even if the court upholds the [ballot] language and they get the required number of signatures and it passes, the Legislature still has to get involved to implement the will of the voters.”
Alright, those are my five bold political predictions for 2014. Let me make one more: It’s likely I won’t be right about half, much less all, of them.
