A.G. Gancarski
As the Jacksonville election approaches on Tuesday, new data gives insight into what the eventual outcome between Lenny Curry and Alvin Brown might be. Spoiler alert: It’s going to be a close one.
In terms of media buys, the Democrats have been outspent, according to a well-connected Democratic source. Curry has spent more than $1 milion, with $340,000 in the final week, according to our Democratic source. Brown, meanwhile, has had $400,000 of media buys, and will end up being outspent by an almost 3 to 1 margin. The Curry side disputes those numbers and that interpretation.
The media buys lean Curry, but the race is still competitive. The Souls to the Polls/Selma Sunday push contributed to the heavy draw of almost 10,000 voters on Sunday, 57 percent of which were Democrats and 32 percent Republicans. The strongest early voting locations were in Democratic strongholds, also, such as Gateway (where the Selma Sunday event was) and Highlands (which has been the leading location throughout the two-week period).
The strong Selma Sunday push means Democrats are now up 5 percent over Republicans in early and absentee voting, 47 percent to 42 percent. Another 11 percent are registered No Party Affiliation. That advantage mirrors almost exactly the 5 percent advantage Democrats had over Republicans at the end of early voting before the March election, which had Bill Bishop in the mix to shear votes from both candidates.