A.G. Gancarski
Released on Monday evening, the last St. Pete’s Poll assessment of the Jacksonville mayor and sheriff’s races tells everyone with a stake in the game to get ready for a long Election Night. The mayor’s race between incumbent Alvin Brown and Republican Lenny Curry, as well as the sheriff’s race between Ken Jefferson and Mike Williams, are both too close to call.
The poll has a slightly different methodology than previous polls, synthesizing the most recent voter data from the Duval SoE and cross referencing that with last poll results to create a new report based on confirmed early voters using both email poll results from last week and phone poll results from 2 weeks ago.
With this in mind, the poll forecasts responses from confirmed Early Voters (a sample size of 604, with a 4% MOE), and includes them in the universe of All Voters (a sample size of 1,282, with a 3% MOE).
The party balance for Early Voters is D +5; for all voters, the party balance is D +3.
In the mayoral race between Brown and Curry, the two candidates are tied at 48 percent with Early Voters; with All Voters, Curry leads Brown 48 – 47 percent.
Both candidates, according to Early Voter and All Voter samples, have had no problem mobilizing the base. Brown is at 80 percent with Early Voters and 78 percent with All Voters, while Curry is at 88 percent with GOP Early Voters and 84 percent with the whole universe of GOP voters. With NPA Early and All Voters both, Brown is in the low 50s.
This metric suggests that Brown has found some traction with the “Party Boss” messaging, and that the afterglow of the Bill Bishop endorsement may have had some salutary effect.
Brown dominates with black voters, as he’s between 85 and 90 percent in both polls; as well, he commands the female vote, with majorities in the low 50s in both polls. Curry, meanwhile, is in the lower 50s with men, and nears 70 percent support among white voters.
Among the age demos, Brown dominates with voters between the ages of 18 to 29, with a 26 point lead among All Voters in that range. The other age groups are more competitive; Brown holds a single digit lead with voters between 30 and 49, while the older demographics see Curry with a similarly slender advantage.
Just as the mayor’s race is a dogfight, so too is the sheriff’s race, which is going to come down to the wire.
Jefferson holds a 50 – 45 percent advantage with Early Voters, with the balance undecided. The universe of All Voters is less decided. Jefferson leads 48 – 46 percent, and this number could be eroded by what has been described as a barrage of Mike Williams robocalls and television ads on Monday.
The party splits, as with the previous St. Pete’s Poll, are remarkably parallel. Among Early Voters, both Jefferson and Williams are at or above 80 percent with members of their own parties. Jefferson holds a two point edge among the NPA side of the All Voters universe; among Early Voter NPAs, however, Williams clings to a 47 – 46 percent lead.
Jefferson’s support among black voters is robust. Among black Early Voters, he is at 91 percent, and he is only a few points lower among all black voters at 87 percent. Williams, meanwhile, has a commanding lead with white voters, leading Jefferson 65 to 29 percent among the whole universe of white voters, and 64 to 31 percent among early voting whites.
Jefferson leads by nine points with all female voters, and 12 points with early voting women. Williams leads among men in both categories by seven points.
Among early voters, Jefferson holds single digit advantages in all age brackets. Within the universe of all voters, there is more deviation. Williams leads by two among voters aged 50 – 69 (the most heavily sampled group in this poll). However, Jefferson leads by three with voters over 70, by six with voters aged 30 – 49, and by 14 points with voters 18 to 29 years of age.
