Melissa Ross
In the nationally watched race for Jacksonville mayor, Alvin Brown lost to Lenny Curry for three main reasons, says UNF political science professor Matt Corrigan. Here are his takeaways:
Campaign Data and Discipline
“First, Brown was up against a determined opponent who ran a well-financed, data-driven, targeted campaign,” says Corrigan. “The Brown camp got started late and did not have a consistent message throughout.”
Corrigan adds that it appeared as though Curry’s superior fundraising gave him an edge on TV advertising, a key asset across far-flung Duval County.
“After the First Election it did not seem the Brown camp was ready. They had campaign staff turnover, and it looks like they had a money problem because they weren’t on TV for a long time and allowed Curry to dominate the airwaves.”
Crime in Jacksonville
Curry hit Brown hard on public safety, with plenty of TV spots and mailers hammering the incumbent on the city’s crime rate. The message turned out to be timely for him, as for example, Jacksonville students were tragically shot on a school bus shortly before the election.
“Curry’s message on crime and being tough on crime was consistent and completely intersected with the news events in Jacksonville over the last two weeks of the campaign.”
Allies and Surrogates
Brown had plenty, including Jaguars owner Shad Khan. But Corrigan says Curry edged him on this front too.
“Brown ran out of allies. The Times-Union endorsed Curry, two former mayors endorsed him, a sitting sheriff, the money people in town apparently left the Brown camp or didn’t contribute. That hurt.”
So where does Brown go from here?
“He’s got great connections in the Democratic Party, so it’s something to watch. If he wants to win statewide though, Brown will calibrate his message on LGBT rights. That’s an issue that was tough to navigate for him here in Jacksonville, and it’s one to watch if his political career continues.”
