A.G. Gancarski
In the aftermath of Tuesday’s election, one Jacksonville party exults while the other one sifts through the wreckage in an attempt to find positives in a disastrous night.
The Duval GOP, which won six out of eight races Tuesday night in contested elections, quite naturally celebrated its win, as an email on Wednesday afternoon indicates:
In a victory that a year ago seemed improbable, increased Republican turnout was key to victory. “It’s a great night for Jacksonville,” said Duval GOP Chairman Robin Lumb. “Not only did Republicans take the Mayor’s office but we also claimed victory in numerous down-ballot races.”
That increased turnout flew in the face of at least one widely promulgated model, which used esoteric polling data (as in they would not divulge its source or methodology) to suggest that Brown was headed toward a “monster” 9 point victory.
“In addition to the races for Mayor and Sheriff, the Duval GOP claimed victory in the races for City Council At-Large Group 1, City Council At-Large Group 5, City Council District 2 and City Council District 4,” the email continues.
Meanwhile, the Duval Democrats went 2-6, which is never a good look. But you wouldn’t know that they were conclusively routed from the email that we obtained that was sent from party Chairman Neil Henrichsen, which claimed that “we now have one more job to do in the near term for the people of Jacksonville as well as Florida and national Democrats.”
What is that job? To learn lessons from the two races they won, obviously.
We need to understand how Democratic candidates can consistently win in Jacksonville, and use that information going forward in a coordinated plan. Although we suffered painful losses yesterday, Democrat Tommy Hazouri was the top vote winner of any candidate in yesterday’s election; a formerly Republican City Council seat went Democrat with Joyce Morgan’s fantastic effort and win; and we have the election information to prepare a plan of how Democrats can win Duval County elections at all levels.
Left unsaid: Hazouri didn’t need the help of the party, given his universal name recognition as a former mayor and state legislator. And the ill-advised decision of his opponent’s father to put a sign on his church that said that “homosexuals must repent or go to Hell,” which theoretically was intended as a counter of Hazouri’s pro-HRO position, only reminded voters to stick with the guys they knew.
When Florida Politics spoke to Hazouri on Tuesday night, he stressed that he intended to work across party lines. Those familiar with the campaign dynamic have said that the party was much more interested in getting Alvin Brown re-elected than in helping candidates such as Hazouri get over the hump.
In the case of Morgan, she won not because of the local Democratic Party, but because of her own superior name recognition as a longtime newscaster on Jacksonville’s leading television station. Her opponent, Mike Anania, lacked a similar platform.
So perhaps the Duval Dems’ new strategy will be to recruit candidates who people have already heard of, either from previous stints in office or spending more than a decade on local television. Based on Tuesday’s results, those are the two paths to victory available to the local party.
