A.G. Gancarski
A week after the Jacksonville mayoral election, things seem to be settling down in the world of Jacksonville politics. All indications are that we will see a smooth transition of power between the Alvin Brown and Lenny Curry administrations. However, there are still multiple theories about how Curry won, and one of them has emerged from Jacksonville University political scientist Stephen Baker, who posits that “After the March election ended with no candidate winning a majority, most voters knew which of the top two would get their ballot in the May race. The runoff campaign made the difference.”
How did Curry go from 5 points down in March to two points up in May? “In each of the 199 precincts, the map is remarkably similar to the other recent partisan executive branch elections in Jacksonville, the 2012 presidential race and 2014 gubernatorial one.”
Both candidates scored gains in virtually every district, posits Baker:
Altogether, Brown gained an additional 19,640 votes over his first election total and Curry increased his amount by 32,735 votes. These increases came from the supporters in the first election for the other candidates, Bill Bishop (30,944 votes) and Omega Allen (4,046) as well as the additional people who only voted in the second election; about 17,000 more ballots were cast in the second election than the first one. There also would be some voters who switched between Brown and Curry.
The expansion of the voter universe, coupled with crossover vote for Curry from the Brown column, made the 
difference. Brown scored gains in the minority-access districts, and in part of District 14; Curry, meanwhile, made up for it everywhere else.
All of the 37 precincts where Brown registered his largest gains relative to Curry were in the minority-access districts (Districts 7,8,9 and 10) and some–although not all–of the Riverside portions of District 14; in the remainder of the city Curry tended to have larger relative gains. In the end, Curry had larger relative gains in 144 precincts, Brown in 54 precincts and one was a tie. Since Curry started out with a smaller base, his larger relative gains resulted in a close final victory (51% to 49%).
