Melissa Ross
Jacksonville’s mayor’s race may have just wrapped up, but Lenny Curry’s win has Floridians of all political stripes already prognosticating about the upcoming presidential race here in 2016.
And Florida remains the swingiest of swing states, with its 29 coveted electoral votes eyed by operatives and donors as the ultimate prize for the nominees.
“This is going to be the most expensive presidential race ever, and increasingly we’ve seen throughout Florida — not just Jacksonville — that local, big city and big county races have cost megamillions,” said Susan MacManus, a professor of political science at the University of South Florida. McManus gauged the 2016 Florida picture during an appearance on WJCT’s First Coast Connect.
McManus says the Jacksonville mayoral contest was not necessarily a bellwether on whether the Republicans can win Florida next year. “Those are different populations that turn out,” she said.
But, she said the race is something of a preview of the unprecedented spending we can expect to see in Florida next year. Much of it will come from outside the state. This, even though Florida is home to many wealthy donors dedicated to seeing their party and candidate emerge victorious.
“Florida is still considered by everybody as the most important, biggest swing state in the country,” MacManus said. “Of course, it’s more important to the Republicans — even more than the Democrats — because Republicans cannot win without it.”
With its four large television markets, a liberal south end, a conservative flank up north, and the crucial I-4 swing corridor in the middle, Florida presents unique challenges for a presidential campaign, McManus said.
“I think every big city and every big metropolitan area is going to be a key battleground in the state of Florida,” MacManus said. “You have to put together the whole package, and each metropolitan area brings a slightly different configuration of population.”
Final takeaway? As in past elections, McManus said look to the Tampa/St. Pete area as the ultimate predictor of which way the wind will be blowing in the 2016 presidential race.
