Mitch Perry
When it comes to performing in early polling, one of the biggest political stories of 2015 has been how Jeb Bush isn’t dominating the GOP presidential field.
But a new Gravis Marketing Poll (done in conjunction with Boston talk-show host Howie Carr) shows the former Florida Governor now leading in New Hampshire by 8 percentage points.
The former Florida Governor leads with 21 percent of the vote, followed by Scott Walker and Rand Paul at 13 percent. Donald Trump is fourth with 12 percent.
Marco Rubio comes in only fifth in this survey, receiving 9 percent of the vote.
“The race in New Hampshire and in other states has become between Bush and Not-Bush,” said Doug Kaplan, managing partner of Gravis Insights. “Walker is the strongest of the Not-Bush, but he is competing against nine or 10 or more other candidates.”
After Rubio in a sixth place tie are Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee at 5 percent support. Ted Cruz and Chris Christie round out the field with 4 percent of the vote.
The Gravis Marketing poll is probably the single-best showing for Bush in any survey since the 2016 race unofficially began late last year. Then, as the first big-time Republican, he broke out out of the gate to announce his intentions to consider running for office. He’s expected to make it official on Monday in Miami.
According to Real Clear Politics, Bush now has an overall average of nearly 4 percentage points higher than any other. Although Bush has familial roots with the Bush family compound in nearby Maine, New Hampshire has not been kind to previous Bushes as far as presidential politics. John McCain famously smoked George W. Bush by 19 percentage points in 2000, and Ronald Reagan defeated George H.W. Bush there in 1980.
In the Gravis poll, Bush also leads voters from households with firearms and among pro-life voters.
In households with firearms, Bush leads Trump 22 to 13 percent. Walker gets 12 percent, Paul 11 percent and Marco Rubio 9 percent.
Among Pro-Life voters, Bush again leads with 18 percent. Walker is the second choice of Pro-Life voters, followed by Paul at 10 percent, with Huckabee and Carson tied at 9 percent.
When it come to a favorite among Tea Party voters in New Hampshire ,however, neither Bush nor Rubio are anywhere to be found.
Cruz leads amongst that slice of conservative GOP voters with 18 percent support. Paul and Walker are next at 13 percent, Huckabee is at 12 percent, and Carson at 9 percent.
The poll also asks Republican New Hampshire voters a series of questions regarding public policy. The most noteworthy answer? By a 51 to 29 percent margin, New Hampshire Republican voters say the U.S. needs to send additional ground troops to the Middle East to fight Islamic state terrorism. Twenty percent say they are unsure how to answer that question.
