A.G. Gancarski
As of now, the HD 16 race for 2016 is between two candidates: political veteran Dick Kravitz, who has held a variety of offices over the decades, and current Duval County School Board member Jason Fischer, who got started early and looks poised to continue his political rise with another run for office.
This would be a classic generational struggle if this race holds up. Fischer has out-raised Kravitz many times over. Both men have run races and won when being out-raised in the past. But word is that a third party may enter the race.
Informed sources are saying that Jacksonville City Councilman Matt Schellenberg is mulling over a run. Yes, Schellenberg just got re-elected. Yes, he is Rules Committee chair. But the rumors aren’t going away.
The question for Schellenberg: Does he want to leave the certainty of an important role on City Council for a chance to be “1 in 120” in the State House? The Mandarin councilman almost certainly would have a steep climb to get the stroke in the State House that he has on council. Despite that, he brings something of a unique value add in that he won the council race by a resounding margin, raising a six-figure sum before the March election against nominal opposition. He’s consistently conservative. Those are all points in his favor.
However. And there is a however.
Kravitz has a long history of polling well in the district. As he said Wednesday, he represented the majority of the district for 20 years, including on City Council. He also pointed out that, in his 2011 race for tax collector against Matt Corrigan, he won all but one precinct in the current HD 16.
Of course, Fischer’s School Board district has 80 percent overlap with HD 16.
Kravitz has “name recognition,” and people know him “very well.”
He also has “experience.” As he said, “I could go in the first day and be chairman of appropriations.” He has chaired committees before in Tallahassee, which he described as a “valuable tool” as he wouldn’t have to work his way up.
He doesn’t worry about fundraising.
“I’ll raise enough money for what I need,” Kravitz said, adding that he will be able to “create [his] own agenda.”
Kravitz actually outraised Corrigan in that 2011 race, but didn’t win. Fischer will be hard to beat on that front.
In conversation Thursday, Fischer was unrelentingly positive. He said on a few occasions that he was focused on his race. Regarding Schellenberg, Fischer has “respect” for him, and thinks that he “will do a good job as Rules Chair.”
Fischer, in running for School Board, demonstrated an ability to win a “grassroots campaign.” He was outspent 3 to 1, yet won by 16 points.
This time around? He has, between hard and soft money, $130,000 in the bank 14 months out. He also has many heavy hitters supporting him.
Susie Wiles. Travis Cummings. Rob Bradley. Travis Hutson. And the PAC of Aaron Bean.
Fischer’s fundraiser last month, held at Epping Forest Country Club, was a “huge success” with a “strong showing of support.”
Fischer’s show of strength puts Schellenberg, and anyone else who might want in, on notice. Fischer has enough money to message heavily and go in whatever direction he needs to, and Kravitz cannot be discounted either. It will be interesting to see what the councilman’s move, if any, might be.
