Mitch Perry- Ben Carson
- Bernie Sanders
- Bobby Jindal
- Carly Fiorina
- Donald Trump
- George Pataki
- headline
- Hillary Clinton
- Jeb Bush
- Jim Gilmore
- Jim Webb
- John Kasich
- John McCain
- Lincoln Chaffee
- Marco Rubio
- Martin O'Malley
- Mike Huckabee
- Public Policy Polling
- Rand Paul
- Rick Perry
- Rick Santorum
- Scott Walker
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- Ted Cruz
- Washington Post/ABC News
A national poll released by Public Policy Polling on Wednesday afternoon shows Donald Trump leading the field of GOP presidential contenders, but his descent may be beginning.
Trump leads the field with 19 percent, followed closely by Scott Walker at 17 percent. Jeb Bush was next at 12 percent, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson at 10 percent, Mike Huckabee at 8 percent, with Ted Cruz, Carly Florina and Rand Paul at 4 percent. John Kasich and Chris Christie are at 3 percent, and Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum are at 1 percent. Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki are at less than 1 percent.
But inside the numbers there is concern for Bush. Just like the Washington Post/ABC News poll published Monday night, the former Florida governor is still a hard sell with conservative voters.
PPP says of Bush: “Among ‘very conservative’ primary voters, only 30 percent see him favorably to 50 percent with an unfavorable opinion. Only 5 percent of voters within that group say Bush is their choice for the nomination, putting him in seventh place. ”
Trump’s lead comes despite only 22 percent of Republicans agree with the comments he made about John McCain over the weekend compared with 50 percent who disagree.
Trump’s narrow 2 percent lead over Walker indicates that the McCain comments have hurt; the poll was conducted after Trump’s comments on McCain went viral. In the WaPo/ABC poll on Monday in which he led by 11 points, most of that polling was conducted before Trump made those remarks.
Among moderate voters, Trump leads Bush, 22 percent-19 percent, with Rubio third at 13 percent.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 57 percent to 22 percent for Bernie Sanders, 5 percent for Jim Webb, 3 percent for Lincoln Chafee, and 2 percent for Martin O’Malley. PPP indicates that this does represent some tightening compared to a month ago: Clinton’s gone from 65 percent to 57 percent, with Sanders gaining from 9 percent to 22 percent. Martin O’Malley‘s announcement bump has also faded, with his support dropping from 5 percent to 2 percent.
Clinton leads all of the potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 3 to 13 points. The Republican who comes closest to Clinton is Paul, who trails by 3 at 45/42. Also coming close are Bush, Rubio, and Walker all of whom trail by an identical 5 point margin at 46/41.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,087 voters nationally, including 524 Republican primary voters and 496 Democratic primary voters, on July 20 and 21. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.0 percent, for the Republicans it’s +/-4.3 percent, and for the Democrats it’s +/-4.4 percent. 80 percent of participants responded via the phone, while 20 percent of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the Internet.
