Peter Schorsch
The third quarter of 2015 closed Sept. 30, meaning campaign finance reports from congressional, legislative and local candidates have begun rolling in. State and local candidates’ reports are due by October 10th, federal candidates’ numbers by the 15th.
Here are 10 fundraising reports I’ll be keeping an eye on this week and next.
• Obviously, the campaign accounts of Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio. Actually, it is another Floridian – Palm Beach’s Dr. Ben Carson – who turned heads by generating $20 million in summer fundraising. So the bar has been set pretty high. Bush and Rubio need to come close to what Carson raised. One of the legs upon which Bush supporters are basing his “inevitability” message is his fundraising. If that leg gets knocked out, it will be very damaging to the brand. It will also be interesting to see how Bush and Rubio are spending their money. There was some talk of a high burn rate in Bushworld before it switched campaign managers.
• Did any of the U.S. Senate candidates raise enough to scare off Jeff Atwater or Bill McCollum? Unless one of the five major candidates for the U.S. Senate seat Marco Rubio is giving up raised north of $5 million, it’s unlikely sideliners Atwater and McCollum will have much to worry about from Republicans Ron DeSantis, Carlos Lopez-Cantera and David Jolly and Democrats Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy. I’m already hearing that DeSantis and Jolly will report less than spectacular numbers – another indication that the GOP establishment does not yet know where to put its money. As for the Dems, will it be another seven-figure report for Murphy?
• Why is Gwen Graham raising all that money? The north Florida Democrat already reported she raised more than $500,000 during July, August and September – but for what? Hasn’t Graham gotten the memo saying the Legislature and/or Supreme Court will redraw the congressional district map in a way that makes it impossible for her to win re-election? Maybe she knows something they don’t. Or, as is more likely, Graham is demonstrating her trademark fortitude, while remembering that the best way to make peace is to prepare for war.
• Did Charlie Crist freeze Eric Lynn’s money? During his first months campaigning, Lynn raised more than any U.S. House challenger in Florida and more than all but four incumbents of either party. But that was before former Gov. Crist said he plans to run for Congress if the redrawing of the state’s congressional lines put his home in the battleground CD 13. Still, Lynn, with his connections to Obama and Jewish donors, may not have felt much of an impact from Crist’s announcement.
• Has Bob Buckhorn started to raise money for 2018? As much as the Tampa mayor walks and talks like a 2018 gubernatorial candidate, his fundraising efforts have been less than serious. For example, Buckhorn’s One Florida PAC took in just 3 checks in July. If Hizzoner wants to keep the 2018 Democratic field as narrow as possible, he’d do well to start shaking his tin can in 2015.
• Speaking of 2018, what are Rick Scott and Adam Putnam up to? Many speculate Scott wants to run for the U.S. Senate in 2018 and the clearest evidence of this is that he continues to raise money for his Let’s Get To Work political committee. So how much did the governor raise from the Tallahassee interest groups who thought they wrote their last check to him in 2014. Meanwhile, there’s little doubt that Putnam is running to replace Scott. The only question is whether he’s crossed the $2 million raised threshold for his committee.
• Are the critics right about Blaise Ignoglia and the Florida GOP? It’s no secret that the Republican Party of Florida is in a fundraising slump. After all, the state party is in the middle of its worst fundraising stretch in six years. But is the RPOF is in as bad a shape as some suggest. With Rick Scott and Republican senators keeping their money out of the party’s hands, Ingoglia faces pressure to show he can raise money like previous party chairs.
• How are Florida state senators preparing for “Map-aggeddon.” Somehow, someway, the state’s Senate districts will be redrawn by the Legislature or the Supreme Court or an Etch-a-Sketch. This means many incumbents who thought they may not have to run in 2016 will likely be on the ballot. What are state senators such as Jeff Brandes and Jack Latvala (who may end up running against each other) doing in the fundraising department to prepare for the monopoly board being thrown into the air?
• How is the race to be speaker of the House in 2022-23 shaping up? It’s never too early to start thinking about who might be Speaker of the Florida House at about the same time my 3-year-old finishes middle school. Redshirt freshman Jamie Grant and Paul Renner may be looking to build an early edge by raising enough money to afford them the ability to play in other House races.
What other reports will you be keeping an eye on?
