Peter Schorsch
Conventional wisdom in Jacksonville for more than two years has been that Alvin Brown enjoys near invincible favorability. But a new survey from St. Pete Polls turns that notion upside down.
The poll reveals the incumbent mayor is in deep trouble and is facing a political environment that is moving away from him as more voters see Jacksonville headed on the wrong track than the right one. Also, 53 percent of voters say they are ready for a new mayor with under 40 percent saying Brown deserves to be re-elected.
Combined, this data is showing a serious collapse of the strength Brown enjoyed just last year.
The clear beneficiary of Brown’s political collapse is Lenny Curry, who has been on the city’s airwaves since the holidays. When the multi-candidate mayoral field was tested, Brown is in first place, taking 38 percent of the vote to Curry’s 31 percent. City Councilman Bill Bishop’s candidacy is the best news Brown may get all year as Bishop takes just over 8 percent of voters. This 8 percent may be the difference preventing a Brown or Curry win in March and pushing to a May run-off.
Despite high praise from some in the media, Bishop doesn’t appear to be a factor in this race at all and has less than $13,000 in the bank as of this writing.
A run-off doesn’t look like a better scenario for Brown either. Why?
Because in a head-to-head matchup Curry is leading Brown beyond the margin of error, 45 percent to 42 percent. Consider that less than a year ago, the University of North Florida had a head-to-head matchup of Brown and Curry with Brown leading by 20 points.
This turnaround has come on the back of a very efficient and effective campaign from Curry. Although on television since late-November, the messages have been soft and biographical. This St. Pete poll demonstrates the final two months before Jacksonville’s March 24 “first election” are likely to see a lot of messaging designed to push the erosion that Brown is suffering even further. This new data also signals that we are likely to see the top candidates getting tough against each other as Curry looks to step on the accelerator and Brown starts to fight for his political life.
P.S. Before Duval Democrats start crying foul about this poll, they should research St. Pete Polls’ track record in the municipal elections in Gainesville, St. Petersburg, and Tampa.
