A.G. Gancarski
Political scientist Matthew T. Corrigan Ph.D., who is one of the country’s leading commentators on Jeb Bush, is coming to the Main Library in Jacksonville on Wednesday evening to discuss his latest book, Conservative Hurricane: How Jeb Bush Remade Florida.
This is an especially timely book, given Bush’s position as a top-tier presidential candidate, one who seems to have unlimited money at this disposal via the Right to Rise PAC. Despite an ability to raise money that would be the envy of anyone in the race not named Hillary Clinton, Bush is dogged by certain critiques.
Some say that he’s not conservative enough. Others say that “we don’t need another Bush in the White House.” And still others have claimed that Jeb has been around too long and that it’s time for a new generation to take center stage.
Corrigan, a keen observer of Jeb’s operation, gave us his unique insight on a few questions ahead of Wednesday’s event.
The first question: Between two “favorite son” candidates in Bush and Rubio, how would you expect Florida voters to break in the Primary?
Corrigan said, regarding “Republican voters,” “it will be close I would think. Most insiders have gone with Jeb – but that was before Rubio got in and looks like he will be able to raise money as well.”
Regarding the general election, Corrigan thinks “Clinton will be stronger than people think now” and that “Jeb against Hillary in Florida would be epic.”
Part of the reason that hypothetical race might be epic, beyond the obvious dynastic connotations, is that Jeb, in the context of the current GOP, is “moderate,” though not as moderate as Bush 41.
“The scale has shifted,” Corrigan said, “because of the Tea Party and others. Jeb is not a Ted Cruz ‘shut the government down’ Republican; he wants to get stuff done.”
Speaking of the Tea Party, Corrigan doesn’t think Jeb can reach them because of family ties. “Some Tea Partiers harken the beginning of the movement back to George W. and the bailouts. With so many candidates in the race, I think some of the old rules could be out the window.”
Perhaps because of the crowded field, Jeb could move on even if he doesn’t win New Hampshire.
“He would need to do well in New Hampshire but maybe not win it. If I were Bush, I would make it clear that I am in the race until at least Florida comes up, no matter what. With so many candidates, he might win a war of attrition, but if someone catches fire – like Walker or Rubio – he would be in real trouble. Polls this far out are meaningless except for fundraising and media purposes.”
WHEN: Wednesday, April 22 at 5:30 p.m.
WHERE: Main Library, The Lounge at 303 Laura St. N.
