Jenna Buzzacco-Foerster
Hillary Clinton is gaining ground in the Electoral College.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball updated its ratings Monday, and all of the changes favor Democrats. The ratings update, which came one day after the second presidential debate, “shows Clinton mildly improving on (President Barack) Obama’s 332 electoral votes from 2012,” according to the team at Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
The updated map shows Clinton carrying all of the Obama states except for Iowa and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. However, the team notes she makes up for that by picking up North Carolina and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which voted for Obama in 2008 but not in 2012.
One of the most notable changes is the shift from “leans Republican” to “leans Democratic” in Ohio.
“Both the state’s history of having a slight Republican lean and its current demographics make it friendlier to Trump than the nation as a whole. However, polling in the state is showing that Donald Trump’s lead from a few weeks ago has evaporated, and the most recent surveys actually have had Clinton ahead,” said Sabato’s Monday memo.
According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Clinton campaign is “redoubling its efforts” in Ohio. And according to the report, if “Clinton wins Ohio, Trump has no path to victory.”
“No Republican has ever won the White House without it, and, particularly in this election, Ohio’s demographics should make it relatively low-hanging fruit for the Republicans,” according to the report. “So we now have Trump as the underdog in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, three electoral vote-rich states that he absolutely needs to have any chance to win.”
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also moved Arizona from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican;” Utah from “safe Republican” to “leans Republican;” and Nevada and the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District to from “toss-up” to “leans Democratic.”
Michigan and Pennsylvania were moved from “leans Democratic” to “likely Democratic.”
