Staff Reports
CBS poll holds some good news for GOP
Voters or candidates should not be overly concerned or excited over the results of one poll. In competitive races, one side is up and one side is down.
For example, the most recent CBS News poll shows Republican Gov. Rick Scott with a five-point lead over Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson (see below) among likely voters. In another poll conducted just a few days ago, Nelson had a slight lead.
Consultants and politicos often talk about the “crosstabs” featuring questions on issues and political opinions outside the “horse race.” While the head-to-head always gets the most attention, the treasure trove of data contained within the crosstabs offers insights into the voting public and indicators of where several races might be heading.
There are many things in this poll that should encourage Republicans and concern Democrats. It shows that if Nelson and Florida Democratic Congressional candidates want to make this a referendum on President Donald Trump, they are going to need more.
Among poll respondents, 52 percent approve of the job the president is doing, while 48 percent disapprove. Around the country, Trump is still 7 points underwater in this category, but Floridians who voted for him are still with him.
Floridians are pleased with the economy. A total of 77 percent said the economy is good or somewhat good, while 23 percent say it is bad or somewhat bad.
Among the Senate candidates, Scott holds a 62 percent job approval rating, while Nelson is at 54 percent. On the question on what voters want from their Senator, a whopping 76 percent is looking for a conservative, or if a progressive, one that will try to work with Trump.
Nelson is clearly counting on a high turnout of Puerto Ricans to help get him over the top and the avalanche of criticism of the Trump administration’s efforts following Hurricane Maria are thought to help the incumbent. But this poll shows 53 percent of Floridians either strongly approve or somewhat approve of the way the administration responded.
Regarding the recent controversy of separating children of illegal immigrants from their parents, 43 percent somewhat approve or strongly approve, and 57 percent somewhat disapprove or strong disapprove. Whether voters were more likely to base their vote on this issue, Democrats hold a 9-point lead.
Nelson leads among Hispanic voters, but only by a margin of 37-36 percent. Respondents also said by a 57-43 percent majority that Trump’s border wall is a good idea.
Finally, Scott’s lead over Nelson is only 42-40 percent among registered voters. It grows to 46-41 among those likely to vote.
The pollster’s analysis credits, apparently for the first time this cycle, a slightly higher voter intensity among Florida Republicans than Democrats. While this does not predict intensity in other states such as California, this is good news for incumbents such as Carlos Curbelo, Brian Mast and Republicans in open seats like District 6 (Ron DeSantis), District 15 (Dennis Ross) and District 17 (Tom Rooney).
Democrats were counting on high intensity to roll over Republicans in a blue wave. If they are still on fire in places like California or other blue states, that can still happen.
It will be interesting to see polling over the next two weeks. Again, this was just one poll.
At the same time, clear-thinking Democrats had to cringe at the tactics of California Democrat Maxine Waters. Recounting the recent harassment of White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders, Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi will not help gain many persuadable voters.
Inciting confrontations has the very real possibility of backfiring and increasing Republican intensity. It could be a long, hot summer.
Did Nelson lead Scott to a change of heart on high-speed rail?
Soon after Scott was inaugurated in 2011, he told the Obama administration Florida was not interested in more than $2 billion in federal money to help build high-speed rail between Tampa and Orlando. Scott expressed concerns over cost overruns and who would make up the difference.
On Saturday, Nelson tweeted while sitting in congested I-4 traffic.
“On I-4. Traffic is bad. Again. I am officially calling on Gov. Scott to let us build high-speed rail. We would be riding at 180 mph between Orlando and Tampa right now had he not turned away $2.4 billion in 2011.”
On I-4. Traffic is bad. Again, I am officially calling on Gov. Scott to let us build high-speed rail. We would be riding at 180 mph between Orlando and Tampa right now had he not turned away $2.4 billion in 2011.
— Bill Nelson (@SenBillNelson) June 22, 2018
Less than two hours after the tweet, Scott announced his administration was seeking proposals for the rail connection along the I-4 corridor. The difference between, 2018 and 2011, Scott says, is private funding now as opposed to public dollars 7 years ago.
“Instead of placing taxpayers on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars, our goal is for the private sector to invest in this project,” Scott said. “Through private investment, we ensure that this major project has zero financial risk to Florida taxpayers,” Scott said.
In response, Nelson chose to revisit Scott’s original reasoning for refusing the federal money. He insisted taxpayers would not have been on the hook.
“That wasn’t true then, and it’s still not true now,” Nelson said in a statement. “The federal government would have paid 90 percent of the cost to complete this project, while private companies would have paid the rest. And the governor’s own FDOT had a study that showed it would have made money in its very first year.”
While Nelson cannot take credit for forcing Scott to come up with something that quickly, he may be somewhat responsible for Scott moving up the timetable for Friday’s announcement. In Florida’s recent history, successful candidates running statewide must do well in the I-4 corridor.
Scott leads Nelson 46-41 among likely voters in CBS poll
As many Democrats feared, Sen. Bill Nelson has a fight on his hands from the challenge of Gov. Rick Scott. Another poll, this one issued Sunday, shows Scott with a small lead on the three-term Democrat.
According to the survey by CBS, Scott holds a 46-41 lead among likely voters. Earlier this month, a Florida Chamber poll showed a three-point lead for Scott, while a May Florida Atlantic University poll had the challenger with a 44-40 lead.
A recent survey by Public Policy Polling had Nelson with a two-point lead.
The poll shows the race tighter among registered voters, who unlike “likely voters” aren’t as committed to showing up in November. More of those voters were Democrats and independents than Republicans. At least according to this poll, the Democratic voter excitement seems to have ebbed.
Rubio touts GOP Senate immigration bill
As the week began, some of the rhetoric surrounding the separation of children and families at the border, seemed a bit quieter on Capitol Hill. Trump administration officials were the target of poor behavior, but some are trying to address the situation.
While the House is struggling to get anything out of that chamber that would address the multiple immigration issues, Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is touting a GOP Senate bill that would keep families together at the border and direct more resources toward ensuring due process.
Rubio went to the Senate floor (remarks begin at 2:44:00 mark) to advocate for the Keep Families Together and Enforce the Law Act. The two-term Senator joined with several Republican colleagues to try to move a possible solution forward.
“It is cruel to separate families, but it is also cruel and irresponsible to return to a policy that encourages parents to bring their children on a dangerous journey,” said Rubio. “This bill will allow us to change the law so that families will remain together while awaiting prioritized proceedings. We should pass it immediately and reunite families.”
While the House bill includes a DACA fix and construction of a border wall in addition to family reunification, the Senate bill address only the latter.
Farm Bill passes House; 2 delegation Republicans vote no
With no room for error, the delayed Farm Bill passed the House of Representatives late last week. The final vote of 213-211 finally got the controversial bill on to the Senate for consideration.
Last month, disputes with conservatives on immigration led many of them to band together and torpedo the farm legislation.
The 746-page bill includes farm subsidies, but the provision that adds additional work requirements for able-bodied recipients of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly known as “food stamps”) benefits made the bill another divisive issue. Delegation members on the House Agriculture Committee had differing views on the bill’s passage.
“From improving crop insurance and preserving the farm safety net, to addressing unfair international trade practices and modernizing the food stamp program, we created a Farm and Food Bill that works for today’s producers,” said Panama City Republican Neal Dunn in a newsletter to constituents, “With this bill, our farmers now have some certainty during times of recession and loss; they know that the United States will continue to have a strong and robust agricultural economy.”
When the bill passed out of committee, Democrat Al Lawson of Tallahassee said the bill will “take food away from millions of seniors, veterans, persons with disabilities and our most vulnerable citizens struggling to make ends meet. As a nation, we should be steadfast in eradicating hunger. This bill does not do that.”
Among the 20 Republicans voting against the bill was Matt Gaetz of Fort Walton Beach and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Miami. All Democrats voted against it.
Gaetz praises House’s path to balanced budget
Late last week, the House Budget Committee approved a fiscal year 2019 budget resolution that sets the federal government on a path to balance the budget and actually produce a budget surplus in later years. The resolution was approved by the committee on a 21-13 vote, including Gaetz.
The first-term Republican, a committee member and one of the House’s committed budget hawks, praised the proposed budget for addressing what he routinely calls “generational theft.” Reductions in entitlement spending are part of the measure.
“This budget is a strong statement of conservative principles: it fully funds our military, ensures the social safety net for America’s most vulnerable citizens is kept intact, and reduces our national debt by eight trillion dollars,” Gaetz said in a statement. “With the greatest reduction in entitlement spending in decades, this budget helps put an end to the generational theft of unbalanced budgets and borrowed foreign money and helps keep the American dream alive for future generations.
Of the $8 trillion in budget reductions in the coming years, $5.4 billion of that comes from entitlement programs.
To that end, Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schulz, also a member of the committee, said she had “offered an amendment to prevent Congress from cutting Social Security benefits (but) zero Republicans supported it.”
Sounds like a campaign commercial in the making.
Crist pushes accountability for family separation
After an exchange with a senior Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) official, Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist of St. Petersburg believes administration officials need to be held accountable for any violations of federal immigration law. To that end, Crist filed the Reunifying Separated Families Act of 2018.
Along with ordering the immediate reunification of families separated while crossing the border illegally, Crist’s bill would impose penalties on those who violate its provisions. As an example, for each child that is not reunited within 30 days, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Nielsen would be fined $1,000 per child per day.
“This was a heartless policy and a nightmare for the children and families involved,” Crist said. “More than 2,300 kids were ripped from their parents, yet the Trump Administration still has no plan for reuniting them with their families. It’s unacceptable.”
The bill also contains a provision that would launch an investigation into the Customs and Border Patrol, ICE and DHS to discover “why the federal agencies have lost children.”
Trump tweets frustrate Ross
Trump is well-known for his morning tweets on the top issues of the day. Sometimes they are designed to attack his attackers, but they are just as likely to provide his blunt assessment of ongoing debates on Capitol Hill.
On the issue of immigration, Lakeland Republican Dennis Ross is growing frustrated. Last week, after the House defeated a conservative immigration bill, House Speaker Paul Ryan said Republicans would continue working on a more moderate bill, but Trump tweeted the House should “stop wasting time on immigration” until after November.
“We’ve reached, I think, a good consensus, and suddenly we wake up to another tweet,” Ross said. “And it’s like, I think he’s with us, but he’s got to really come out for us. This is the opportunity.”
Republican House leaders said a vote on the compromise bill that would include a DACA fix and end family separations at the border would come this week. Trump is not the GOP’s only problem as conservatives are resisting the granting of what they call “amnesty” to large numbers of undocumented immigrants as well as the lack of a system to force employers to hire only documented immigrants.
South Florida Democrats visit Homestead facility
A trio of South Florida Democrats and Nelson visited the Homestead Detention Center over the weekend to inspect the conditions for the young people being housed there. While they were mildly complimentary of the facility’s arrangements, Frederica Wilson of Miami Gardens, Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston and Ted Deutch of Boca Raton pointed out shortcomings.
The facility is housing undocumented juveniles who arrived unaccompanied and some of those who were separated from their parents upon entry. Nelson and Wasserman Schultz tried to inspect the facility late last week but were turned away.
Saturday’s delegation visit coincided with a large protest involving 23 advocacy groups called the “March to Keep Families Together.” The barracks-style facility holds more than 1,100 children with more than 1,000 of those falling into the unaccompanied child category.
Outside, chants of “Hey, Trump, leave those kids alone,” could be heard, recycling the Pink Floyd classic “Another Brick in the Wall.”
The delegation described the facility as clean and indicated the minors were being properly cared for. However, they claim the center is understaffed with only one person overseeing the reunification process, and she does not work on weekends
“If it is the goal to reunify these families,” Deutch said, “then the instructions should come down from the White House to dedicate whatever resources are necessary to ensure that there are officials at every facility where these kids are being housed [and] to work round-the-clock.”
Brogan confirmed for top-level DOE position
Former Florida Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan is now officially a member of the Trump administration, joining the Department of Education (DOE) as assistant secretary of elementary and secondary education.
On Monday, the Senate officially confirmed Brogan in a non-controversial voice vote. He was originally nominated for the position by Trump in December.
Brogan comes to his new job with experience as an elementary school teacher, principal and school superintendent in Martin County. In 1994, he was elected as Florida’s Commissioner of Education before joining Jeb Bush’s ticket in Bush’s successful run for governor in 1998.
Shortly after re-election in 2002, Brogan left Tallahassee to become President of Florida Atlantic University. He would later go on to serve as Chancellor of the State University System in Florida and later in Pennsylvania.
Brogan has long been a proponent of school choice, supporting charter schools and “opportunity scholarships” that provide funds for parents of children in failing schools to enroll students in private schools.
His boss, Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos, has generated significant controversy through her outspoken advocacy for school choice.
On this date in the headlines
June 26, 1995 — The National Rifle Association, engaged in a vigorous struggle against gun control, has operated in the red for four years, depleting its cash reserves and investments drastically. Documents prepared for the NRA board of directors show the powerful gun lobby ran total deficits at $69 million between 1991 and 1993. An additional $3 million deficit is projected for last year.
NRA officials, including President Thomas Washington, Treasurer Wilson Phillips and executive vice-president Wayne LaPierre, declined to comment. NRA spokesman Bill Powers said “There is not much of a desire to weigh in on this.”
June 26, 2015 — The Supreme Court has ruled that President Barack Obama’s health care law allows the federal government to provide nationwide tax subsidies to help poor and middle-class people buy health insurance, a sweeping vindication that endorsed the larger purpose of Obama’s signature legislative achievement.
The 6-3 ruling means that it is all but certain that the Affordable Care Act will survive after Obama leaves office in 2017, and has a greater chance of becoming an enduring part of America’s social safety net. The high court rejected a challenge, based on the semantics of an ambiguous text in the law, that threatened the health insurance for 1.3 million Floridians who receive coverage through the federal exchange.
McCaskill: Sore ribs never felt so good
Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill attended a Democratic Party fundraising dinner in her home state Saturday. While glad-handing with well-wishers, hugs were at a minimum as she spoke of sore ribs.
The soreness can be blamed on West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin. At a luncheon for Senate Democrats on Thursday, McCaskill began choking, prompting Manchin to get up and perform the Heimlich maneuver.
The good news is, Manchin’s actions worked, while the bad news was the after effects.
“I’m really grateful to Joe,” McCaskill said. “A little bit of a sore rib for a couple of weeks is no big deal.”
Both McCaskill and Manchin join Nelson as Democrats in tough re-election fights in states won by Trump in 2016.
