Ryan Nicol
A new poll is challenging the conventional wisdom that Adam Putnam leads Ron DeSantis in the Republican gubernatorial primary, showing DeSantis with a 17-point lead.
Is this new poll a sign of a big change? Or a mere outlier?
The survey shows DeSantis earning 43 percent of support among Republican primary voters. Putnam pulls in 26 percent, with 25 percent undecided. No other Republican candidate earned more than two percent support.
The poll was conducted by Remingtion Research Group on behalf of the Tenth Amendment Project. Nearly 2,900 Republican primary voters were surveyed from July 2 to July 5, shortly after the candidates’ recent debate, which aired on Fox News. The margin of error given was 1.84%.
“The latest survey of Republican primary voters in Florida shows the race continues to be a two-man contest between Ron DeSantis and Adam Putnam,” said Remington Research Group President Titus Bond.
“DeSantis has seen a dramatic increase in ballot share while Putnam’s support has been static.”
Remington’s track record is questionable, however. The group earns just a “C” rating from FiveThirtyEight’s comprehensive pollster ratings, putting them toward the bottom of the list.
Those ratings are formulated by judging the pollster’s methods, as well as its past predictions as compared to actual election results. A “C” rating calls into question Remington’s accuracy.
And indeed, a 17-point lead for DeSantis would fly in the face of other pollsters’ recent findings.
In fact, Remington’s findings are the inverse of two recent polls from last month, with surveys from both NBC News/Marist and the Florida Chamber of Commerce showing Putnam up 17 points instead.
A recent internal poll by the DeSantis campaign also showed him with a huge lead over Putnam. 47 percent backed DeSantis, 28 percent supported Putnam, and 25 percent were undecided.
The DeSantis campaign points to increased support by President Donald Trump, who has endorsed DeSantis, as well as a ramping up of their advertising as possible explanations for DeSantis pulling ahead. Internal polls, however, are notoriously faulty as well.
That’s not to say that the race hasn’t changed since previous outside polls were released, or that the debate performance of DeSantis may have changed some voters’ minds. But as of now, this poll appears to be an outlier when it comes to outside evaluations of the race.
Only time, and more polling, will tell if it’s a sign of something more.
9 comments
Kevin
July 6, 2018 at 5:18 pm
This isn’t surprising and is probably right – although a bit inflated. Republican primary voters are going to follow Trump and Hannity’s direction. Putnam supporters will fall in line upon DeSantis’ win. Putnam’s current supporters will call him an “establishment” guy when he loses. They’ll say they never liked him much anyway, really. Party first. Florida second.
Wait… and….. see.
Jason Barker
July 9, 2018 at 2:45 pm
Hannity and Trump is going in the direction our country needs.
R.
July 6, 2018 at 5:30 pm
You’re forgetting that the NBC and Fox polls came prior to the Trump endorsement and before Desantis’ first ever tv ad buys in the state. I’m more inclined to believe this poll.
Seasoned Pollster
July 8, 2018 at 12:38 am
NOPE. Trump tweeted support back in JANUARY and Ron has been LOUDLY proclaiming Trump’s “endorsement” since then!
Paul
July 6, 2018 at 5:47 pm
I’m surprised by the decision to mention 538’s “C” score for the pollster in the article. In light of the credence being provided to 538, I trust this page will begin incorporating 538’s “C+” score for Rasmussen in future articles.
Harry
July 6, 2018 at 9:10 pm
Ron DeSantis has been spending more time campaigning in Florida.
Meanwhile, Putnam is finding that his huge warchest is not performing as he expected now that his amnesty and anti-NRA positions have been exposed.
I am not surprised to see the change in the poll numbers.
Dustin
July 7, 2018 at 11:02 am
DeSantis is the far superior candidate. No question about it. It was quite evident in the debate. DeSantis knows Washington better and will definitely help keep Florida great!
Luke
July 7, 2018 at 11:09 am
Paul…Meanwhile, Putnam is finding that his huge war chest is not performing as he expected now that his amnesty and anti-NRA positions have been exposed. REALLY, PAUL??? I’ve never heard that, and I called the NRA twice, and both times different people told me Adam was Behind them all the way! I hooked ’em a little bit, saying I would not pay my dues if this was true! They said, we’ll hate to see you go, but Adam Putnam is a staunch supporter of the NRA! Explain it Paul, and show proff as to where you recieved this information! That’s if you can???
Luke
July 7, 2018 at 11:16 am
Really Paul???? I called the NRA twice and both times I was told Putnam backed the NRA! I hooked ’em a little bit and said, well, if Putnam is backing you, then I’m out, and I refuse to pay my dues! They said, we hate to see you go, but Adam Putnam is a staunch supporter of the NRA. We’re gonna need an article or link, something of proof as to where you read this, if at all, PAUL!!
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