Poll: Andrew Gillum enters first gubernatorial debate with 6-point lead

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and former Congressman Ron DeSantis are set to square off in their first gubernatorial debate this evening, and a new poll shows Gillum is heading into the televised head-to-head with a 6-point lead.

The poll, conducted by Tom Eldon’s SEA Polling & Strategic Design, found Gillum, a Democrat, up 48-42 percent over his Republican rival.

The remaining 10 percent of respondents said they were unsure which of the two candidates they’d vote for on the eve of early voting beginning in several Florida counties

The SEA poll, conducted Oct. 17 through Oct. 20, is a middle ground between two other fresh polls of the gubernatorial contest.

Team DeSantis circulated internal poll numbers Sunday showing the Trump-backed pol with a 47-45 percent lead over Gillum. Also on Sunday, 24-hour news network CNN released a poll showing Gillum with a 52-42 percent lead.

An average of public polls in the gubernatorial contest produced by RealClearPolitics pegs Gillum with a 3.7 percentage point lead in the matchup.

DeSantis and Gillum will face each other tonight in front of an audience at the WEDU Studios in Tampa, the first time the pair will share a stage for the debate since winning their respective party nominations.

The SEA poll also measured two other statewide races slated for the general election ballot: The contests for U.S. Senate and Attorney General.

Floridians will also choose between incumbent Republican Jimmy Patronis and former Democratic state Sen. Jeremy Ring in the Chief Financial Officer race and between Republican state Rep. Matt Caldwell and Democratic nominee Nikki Fried in the Ag. Commissioner contest.

In the U.S. Senate bout, which could carry substantial national implications, SEA found Republican Gov. Rick Scott with a 47-45 percent lead over incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson with 9 percent undecided. The RealClearPolitics average on that race shows Nelson with a 1.3 percentage point edge.

In the Attorney General contest, Republican nominee Ashley Moody holds a 6-point lead over  Tampa Democratic Rep. Sean Shaw

Shaw and Moody are vying to replace Republican Attorney General Pam Bondi, who cannot seek re-election due to term limits.

While the SEA poll showed Democratic candidates in the lead in two out of three races polled there were a couple bright spots for Republicans: President Donald Trump posted a positive favorability rating and a plurality of voters said they thought the state was “headed in the right direction” – a stat that most pollsters say favors the GOP given that it’s held a trifecta on state government for two decades.

On Trump, 47 percent of those polled said they saw the president in a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” light, while a combined 45 percent held a negative view. Both DeSantis and Scott have close ties to Trump and have highlighted their positive relationship with the White House as a benefit if they are elected in November.

The rest of the favorability scores: Gillum earned a plus-10, DeSantis a plus-9, Scott a plus-8 and Nelson came in under water by a single point.

The SEA poll received was conducted via live interviews and received responses from 600 registered voters, 78 percent of whom said they were “almost certain to vote.” The sample was made up of 41 percent Republicans, 39 percent Democrats and 20 percent independent voters.

Broken down by race, two-thirds of those polled self-identified as white, 14 percent as Hispanic and 13 percent as black. By age, a third of those polled were 50 to 64 years old, 21 percent were 35 to 49, 20 percent were 65 to 74, while the 18 to 34-year-old and 75-plus brackets each made up 13 percent of the sample. Women made up 54 percent of those polled

Interestingly, the SEA poll also measured voters’ religiosity, with 43 percent identifying as protestant, 23 percent as Catholic, 19 percent as “none,” 8 percent as other and 4 percent as Jewish. Nearly half of voters who disclosed their religion said they attended services once a week or more.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll is below.

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