PredictIt: Odds favor Andrew Gillum, Bill Nelson

PredictIt Gov race

Plenty of internet experts have all sorts of predictions as to what will happen Tuesday night. But those putting their money where their mouth is see good news for Democratic candidates Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson in their respective races for Governor and U.S. Senate.

As of the drafting of this piece (though with numbers subject to change), the Democratic Party was selling at 67 cents in the race for Governor on PredictIt, a political prediction market. The Republicans, who are running former U.S. Rep. Ron DeSantis, were selling at just 38 cents.

That’s a drastic change from the odds coming off the Aug. 28 primary. After Gillum upset former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, PredictIt markets switched to favoring Republicans.

But over time, as polling has mostly shown leads for Gillum, the markets have moved back to the Democrats’ favor.

Nelson similarly saw his odds fluctuate throughout the general election campaign.

But he’s now the favorite to defeat his Republican opponent, Gov. Rick Scott, according to PredictIt. Nelson is trading at 62 cents.

The site also favors the Democrat in one of the most closely contested congressional races in not just South Florida, but the whole country.

Donna Shalala is competing against Republican nominee Maria Elvira Salazar in the race for Florida’s 27th Congressional District. PredictIt has Democrats trading at 73 cents, while Republicans sit at just 29 cents.

U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida’s 26th Congressional District has been vacillating between underdog and favorite just in the last 24 hours. He is currently trading at 53 cents as he fights for re-election against Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

The races for Florida’s 15th Congressional District and Florida’s 17th Congressional District do favor the GOP, according to the site’s odds.

But overall, the Democrats are favored to take over the U.S. House. In the market to predict how many seats the GOP will hold after Tuesday’s vote, “217 or fewer” is the priciest at 73 cents. That would put Republicans in the minority.

The site includes some prop-like bets as well, such as asking which statewide candidate will receive the most overall votes. Andrew Gillum is favored, trading at 54 cents. He’s followed by Bill Nelson at 31 cents, Rick Scott at 19 cents, and Ron DeSantis at 9 cents.

And of course, it wouldn’t be a midterm Election Day without immediate rampant speculation about the 2020 presidential race. PredictIt has Democrats favored, trading at 54 cents. Republicans are trading at 47 cents.

As for the Democrats’ nominee? U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California leads, trading at 21 cents. She is followed by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 16 cents and former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, both of whom are at 14 cents.

Ryan Nicol

Ryan Nicol covers news out of South Florida for Florida Politics. Ryan is a native Floridian who attended undergrad at Nova Southeastern University before moving on to law school at Florida State. After graduating with a law degree he moved into the news industry, working in TV News as a writer and producer, along with some freelance writing work. If you'd like to contact him, send an email to [email protected].


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