Bob SparksNow that the dust has settled from the David Jolly vs. Alex Sink race for Congressional District 13, the message machines are in full spin cycle. We have heard most of the analysis from both sides.
Was this simply, as Democrats say, a race won by a Republican in a district held by Republicans for more than 50 years? Or was it, as Republicans predict, a harbinger of things to come in November?
There is ample evidence pointing toward a GOP rout in eight months if they don’t fumble the ball before reaching the end zone. Other GOP candidates, and the party as a whole, will continue to tie the anvil known as Obamacare around the neck of their opponents.
Democrats hang their hopes on a miraculous turnaround on Obamacare, or perhaps on GOP candidates like the hapless 2012 U.S. Senate candidate Todd Akin. Some share the belief that the conflict within the Republican Party will split the party and produce more Todd Akins.
Left-leaning pundits point to the overall low regard in which the Republican brand is held. A national poll conducted for CBS News and the New York Times found that only 33 percent hold a favorable view of the Republican Party while 61 percent hold an unfavorable opinion.
Democrats are underwater, too, but are nearly 10 points better than Republicans with a 42/53 favorable to unfavorable ratio. So, the unpopularity of the GOP just might be the dike to stop the potential tsunami coming toward Democrats, right?
As ESPN’s Lee Corso often says: “Not so fast, my friend.”
That same CBS/New York Times poll also shows the GOP leading the generic congressional ballot by three points at 42 percent to 39 percent. This poll of “adults” and not necessarily “likely voters” also shows President Obama’s job approval at 41 percent.
What gives?
The devil is in the cross-tabs. It would be natural to think independents must be breaking toward the Democrat brand to create such a gap. That would be wrong.
The answer lies within the GOP. While Democrats give their party an 85 percent favorable view, only 67 percent of Republicans have a favorable view and 29 percent unfavorable opinion of their party. Independents held both parties in equally low esteem by a two-to-one margin.
Well-known political analyst Stuart Rothenberg took note of these poll results in a recent article and Republicans should be pleased.
“The impressions and vote intentions of ‘independents’ are important, and the fact that independents don’t have a more negative view of the GOP than of the Democratic Party – at least in the most recent CBS News/New York Times Survey – is worth noting and is potentially significant.”
If Republicans narrow their differences and the “establishment” or the Tea Party can accept GOP nominees for the good of the party (that can be a big “if”), a big wave election is on the way. The House is safe for Republicans while the Senate could actually flip in their favor. Every Democratic senator up for re-election voted for Obamacare.
Another example of the general mood, and that candidates matter, can be found in the Democratic bastion of Hawaii. Incumbent Governor and former Congressman Neil Abercrombie has a primary opponent, which shows Democratic discontent.
If he survives, he will face former Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona. At the same time the CBS/New York Times poll came out, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser commissioned a poll showing Aiona leading Abercrombie 48-40.
Abercrombie has done a less than stellar job as governor, so despite the odds, the right candidate can win in the Aloha State. Why not? Hawaii is known for catching the wave.
Back home, Obamacare could play a decisive role in competitive House districts. South Florida Democrats Joe Garcia and Patrick Murphy defeated incumbents by close votes in 2012. Central Florida’s Dan Webster and his fellow Republican Steve Southerland from the Panhandle held on to their seats in close elections. This issue is powerful enough to make an occasional solid district become competitive for the right challenger.
Jobs and the economy will be a major topic of the campaign for Florida governor, but Gov. Rick Scott will pound away at former Gov. Charlie Crist’s support of Obamacare. Crist will counter with Scott’s refusal to expand Medicaid, but should also be working on answers for the attacks coming his way.
Democratic National Committee Chair and Florida Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz says “you’re darn right that our candidates are going to run on the advantage that Obamacare will be going into the 2014 election. The choice will be very clear.”
She is absolutely right about that.
Bob Sparks is a Tallahassee-based political and business consultant. Column courtesy of Context Florida.
