Florida results show Biden earning 48% of the vote and Trump 45%. The survey was conducted from Friday, May 29 to Sunday, May 31 as protests against the killing of George Floyd began to expand nationwide.
That means the poll leaves out much of the impact from respective responses from both Biden and Trump.
The survey does, however, show the President’s strength in the battleground states most likely to decide the election when compared to Trump’s standing overall.
Results from CNBC and Change Research show Biden leading Trump nationwide by a comfortable 48%-41% margin.
Yet in the six battleground states specifically surveyed in the poll — Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Biden’s Florida lead is his largest, at 3 points.
In four of the remaining five states, the candidates are within 2 percentage points of one another, including a 45%-45% tie in Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads by 4 points, according to the poll.
That puts Trump’s net margin in those six states at between 4 and 11 points better than his national numbers.
Trump’s competitiveness in those high-profile contests shows the folly in focusing on national results leading up to November. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016. He won the presidency, however, thanks to narrow wins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The President could threaten a repeat in 2020, according to these newest results.
The poll also found Trump with a -12 approval rating nationwide. In Florida, that number sits at -7 points.
Floridians are also fairly split on the state’s response to the novel coronavirus. A plurality, 42%, say the state is reopening too quickly. Just 23% say Florida is not reopening quickly enough, while 35% say it’s happening at the right pace.
The outbreak is likely to remain on voters’ minds come November, and recent instability due to those nationwide protests could also play a role.
The survey’s battleground portion sampled 3,958 likely voters across Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and has a margin of error of 1.56 percentage points.
The nationwide section sampled 1,457 likely voters and holds a margin of error of 2.57 points.