Poll shows Randy Fine dominating HD 53 GOP primary

A pre-Election Day poll shows Randy Fine with an almost unsurmountable advantage in his reelection bid for House District 53.

A Florida Politics-commissioned St. Pete Polls survey of likely Republican voters found if the election were held today, 59% would vote for Fine. That compares to less than 22% who would choose Marcie Adkins, his primary challenger. That leaves less than 20% of voters undecided, but even if all of those vote for Adkins, Fine would still win in a landslide.

Moreover, Fine dominates even more among those respondents who already voted in the primary. Among those voters whose vote has already been cast, nearly 68% say they voted for Fine. About 25% of the ballot share went to Adkins. Another nearly 8% declined to say for whom they voted.

But if trends continue, there’s a chance the loss could be more embarrassing for Adkins than the toplines alone reveal.

Granted, the bulk of voters in the district decided against mail-in-voting this year, a trend consist with Republican behavior statewide. About 29% of district Republicans already voted by mail, the poll shows, and another 19%  plan to do so; 53% will vote in person.

The result shows an incumbent’s dominance in the face of what has been a highly confrontational campaign. In July, a woman named Daedra Logan came forward accusing Adkins’ campaign consultant Robert Burns of rape. Logan said Adkins offered no sympathy or empathy when she came to her about the matter.

More recently, Adkins supporters accused Fine of faking a recent COVID-19 diagnosis, for which he was hospitalized for nearly a week. That prompted Fine to file a complaint with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Office for Civil Rights, citing the fact the individual claimed to have obtained Fine’s hospital records.

Fine was first elected to the Florida House in 2016, and served the past two years as chair of the Higher Education Appropriations Subcommittee. He’s running now for a third term.