Jacob Ogles
An internal poll from U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan’s campaign shows the incumbent leading Democrat Margaret Good by 15 percentage points.
Survey results from highly-respected Data Targeting peg Buchanan winning 53% of the vote to Good’s 38%. That puts the Republican’s lead outside the poll’s 4.9% margin of error.
Good, a Democratic state lawmaker, was recruited by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to challenge Buchanan in Florida’s 16th Congressional District. The campaigns, in recent weeks, have posted dramatically different internal polling on the state of the race.
The newest Buchanan poll shows the same margin between candidates Data Marketing found the last time they polled the race. Results released Oct. 12 showed Buchanan at 52% and Good at 37%, so both candidates have climbed up one point in the poll since then. That poll was conducted Oct. 6 through 8.
Prior to the survey results released Thursday, Buchanan’s campaign put out another poll, collected Sept. 29-Oct. 1, that found Buchanan at 53% and Good at 37%.
But while the top lines have been consistent, Data Targeting pollsters say there have been developments. Notably, Good’s name recognition grew significantly over the last month. Her name recognition more than tripled since early September. While around 8% report an unfavorable opinion of Buchanan, the most recent poll shows 26% view Good negatively.
And 38% of Republican voters still don’t recognize Good. She’s also not winning over seniors in the retirement-rich district; Buchanan leads 53% to 41% among voters age 65 and older, and 61% to 33% among those age 50 to 64.
Buchanan’s team plans to further smolder Good’s reputation with voters. It just published the website NoGoodforFlorida.com, cataloging missteps in her congressional campaign and attacking her voting record in the statehouse.
“These are serious times that require serious leadership,” said Buchanan campaign manager Max Goodman. “From violating election laws to opposing a bill aimed at protecting children from predators, Margaret has proved incapable of rising to the moment. We thought voters might like to see a partial list of local and national news clippings illustrating Margaret’s fumbling campaign, so we’re making it available under the website NoGoodforFlorida.com.”
“It includes a TV interview in which Margaret gives a truly bizarre response to the question ‘where are you from?’ If she can’t even answer that question candidly, how are we supposed to trust anything she says.”
At the same time, Good’s campaign in recent weeks has released two polls by different pollsters that show her within striking distance of Buchanan. Global Strategy Group in early October said Buchanan’s lead sat at 49% to Good’s 43%, a six-point spread. Good’s campaign later released a poll by Change Research showing a three-point race, with the Republican at 48% and the Democrat at 45%. It’s unclear why she changed pollsters between polls.
Pollsters gathered responses Oct. 19-21.
Dt Flcd16 20g Memo by Jacob Ogles on Scribd
