Republican James Satcher heads into next Tuesday the heavy favorite in a Manatee County Commission contest.
A St. Pete Polls survey commissioned by Florida Politics shows if the District 1 election were held today, about 58% of voters would pick Satcher. About 35% instead pick Democrat Dominique Shauntel Brown, while about 8% remain undecided.
Pollsters included responses from 344 likely voters, all surveyed on Oct. 16. That gives the poll a 5.3% margin of error. Satcher’s edge falls well beyond that; in fact he’s far enough beyond 50% that even accounting for a polling error he still can’t be touched.
That’s going to disappoint Democrats, who saw an opportunity to compete in the seat.
Satcher in August defeated incumbent County Commissioner Priscilla Whisenant Trace in the Republican primary. He credited his upset with a philosophically conservative message and commitment to property rights.
Democrats had hoped seeing a candidate who ousted the incumbent with a run from the right would create an opportunity to reach moderate voters in the General Election.
That’s not happening. In fact, independents in the poll break for Satcher heavily. He’s winning 58% of those voters to Brown’s 30%.
Trace voters also don’t seem to be jumping ship. Republicans are sticking with Satcher more than Democrats have energized around Brown. The poll shows 85% of Republicans plan to vote for Stacher, but just 82% of Democrats will pick Brown. Less than 5% of Republicans remain undecided in the race while nearly 10% of Democrats could go either way.
Brown, a Black candidate, claims support from 92% of the Black vote but all other racial demographics break for Satcher. He leads with Hispanic voters 50% to 29%, Asian and Pacific Islander voters 50% to 25%, and White voters 61% to 32%.
And women voters break more heavily for Satcher than men; he wins 62% of the female vote to Brown’s 32%, and 55% of the male vote to Brown’s 37%. All age demographics also go to Satcher.