Morning Consult poll shows Joe Biden with significant lead in six swing states, including Florida

Biden rising
The Morning Consult polling looks bullish for Biden.

An Election Eve swing state poll shows Joe Biden up 8 percentage points nationally and winning in Florida by a healthy margin.

The Morning Consult found the Democrat winning about 51% of the vote in Florida and President Donald Trump the choice for 45%. The 6-point lead falls well outside the poll’s 2% margin of error.

The numbers came in a batch of polling for 14 battleground states, which found Biden leading outside the margin of error in six states, Trump leading in three and a statistical tie in five other states. The same poll found Biden with a six-point net positive favorability rating nationwide and Trump 11 points underwater.

The state-level surveys were conducted Oct. 21 and 22.

If correct, the polling shows a clear path to victory for Biden heading into Tuesday’s election. The former Vice President leads the incumbent in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, all states President Barack Obama won in 2012 — with Biden as a running mate — but which Trump won in 2016. Biden also maintains on edge in Colorado and Minnesota.

Trump leads in Indiana, Missouri and South Carolina. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas all remain statistically tied, but with an edge to Biden in the first three and Texas tied; the Republican leads in Ohio by 3 points. All of those are states the Republican won in 2016 on his way to the White House.

The polling looks more bullish than most data coming out, at least at the state level in Florida.

Nationally, the poll finds Biden leading among all age demographics. That includes voters older than 65, where the Democrat leads 50% to 47%.

Both candidates retain support from more than 90% of members of their own party but independents break 49% to 39% for Biden. It also shows Biden leading among men 49% to 47% and among women 54% to 41%.

The Consult data shows Trump winning 52% of White voters to Biden’s 44%.

In contrast, a Florida Politics-commissioned survey by St. Pete Polls showed Biden winning by 1 point, but Trump with the edge among voters age 70 and older and among men.

State-level breakdowns on polling were not available from the Morning Consult.

Jacob Ogles

Jacob Ogles has covered politics in Florida since 2000 for regional outlets including SRQ Magazine in Sarasota, The News-Press in Fort Myers and The Daily Commercial in Leesburg. His work has appeared nationally in The Advocate, Wired and other publications. Events like SRQ’s Where The Votes Are workshops made Ogles one of Southwest Florida’s most respected political analysts, and outlets like WWSB ABC 7 and WSRQ Sarasota have featured his insights. He can be reached at [email protected].


  • Sonja Fitch

    November 2, 2020 at 9:59 am

    If ever the polls need to be accurate is this election! During the hanging chads I never worried about either candidate being an American President! When Reagan won, never worried about him either! The goptrump death cult leader Trump is a clear and present danger to all of America! Vote Democrat up and down ballot for the Common good and decency in America!

  • gary

    November 2, 2020 at 1:57 pm

    Love the suppression polls! They don’t work anymore however. Just like #Fakenews does not work anymore! Americans are awake to the Nazi created misinformation campaign used every year by liberal media and polling companies! Trump will win! HUGELY!

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