Andrew Learned battles Michael Owen in HD 59 as the GOP hopes to reclaim the seat

Two candidates with crossover appeal are facing off in the race for a Hillsborough seat that swung to Democrats just two years ago: House District 59.

It’s currently represented by Democratic Rep. Adam Hattersly, who vacated it to take on Republican U.S. Rep. Ross Spano, who he replaced in HD 59 in 2018. Hattersly subsequently lost the Democratic primary to Alan Cohn. 

Democrat Andrew Learned and Republican Michael Owen are facing off in the battle for the district – and a win would be meaningful for either party.

Republicans see 2020 as an excellent opportunity to get the seat back, while Democrats think they have a solid chance of hanging onto it, given their candidate and the current political climate.

The district

HD 59’s boundaries encompass Hillsborough suburbs like Valrico, Brandon, Palm River and Riverview. You’d think this would make for a party registration split that puts Republicans at a solid advantage. To the contrary, there are 45,721 registered Democrats in the district, whereas there are 39,582 Republicans. And that chasm appears to be growing. The rub, of course, is that there are more than 36,116 NPAs and many more third-party and independent voters in the district. 

Donald Trump won the district by about a point in 2016, and Biden is currently polling about four points ahead among voters there.

The candidates

Both candidates are relatively young professionals.

A Navy veteran who owns a small business, Learned cites what he sees as the state’s “inept” handling of COVID-19 as a key reason for his run. This is his second run for office. In 2018, he lost a bruiser of a primary for Florida’s 15th Congressional District seat to Kristen Carlson.

Owen is a small business lawyer, who lists investing in infrastructure and public safety among his top priorities as a legislator. During his primary, he saw support from the likes of the anti-choice Florida Right to Life PAC. He won his party’s nomination after an expensive primary against Danny Kushmer.

Where things stand

Learned has raised $350,503 in his bid for the seat.

Owen, meanwhile, isn’t too far behind. His campaign has raised $308,084. Of course, there’s then the untold amount of outside spending that comes with any competitive legislative race in Florida. 

Going into Election Day, polls show a virtually air-tight race. A recent St. Pete Polls survey of voters in the district had Learned ahead, but only by about two points: 44% to Owen’s 42%. The poll had a 5% margin of error and 14% of voters were still undecided and it suggests more Democrats might be crossing party lines to vote for Owen than vice versa.

Still, Democrats see Learned’s veteran status as an asset that could be attractive to moderate Republicans.