Last Call for 6.21.21 — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics

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A digest of the day's politics and policy while the bartender refreshes your drink.

Last Call — A prime-time read of what’s going down in Florida politics.

First Shot

Good news and bad news for U.S. Congresswoman Val Demings’ Senate bid.

The political betting market shows Demings is the likely Democrat to win her party’s nomination for the 2022 Senate race. She has 4/53 odds or a 93% probability, according to betting industry analysts at USsportsbonus.com.

“Demings has been a Democratic star in recent year, so it’s no surprise that she’s such a strong favorite to win the primary, especially when she raises $1 million the day after she announced her bid to challenge Rubio,” Jay Sanin, a gambling industry analyst at US Sportsbonus, said.

But in the matchup that really matters, against incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, the Democrat isn’t predicted to win. Republicans have 50/213 odds to retain the seat or an 89% probability.

Gov. Ron DeSantis is also a standout in the political betting market as the Republican Governor continues to pick up steam through appearances on the national stage.

DeSantis’ odds to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election improved significantly. DeSantis, as of Monday, had the second strongest odds among Republicans to win the election at a 2.4% probability, and he’s tied with Donald Trump to win their party’s nomination. Each man has a 20% probability of winning the nomination for the Republican Party.

By the way, wagering on political outcomes in the U.S. is not legal. The odds are gathered from overseas operators.

Evening Reads

Can America’s solar power industry compete with China’s? One firm tries” via Bob Davis of The Wall Street Journal

Merrick Garland tries to untangle the Donald Trump legacy at the Justice Department” via Devlin Barrett of The Washington Post

Can Democrats avoid a total train wreck on voting rights?” via Eric Lutz of Vanity Fair

When it comes to big city elections, Republicans are in the wilderness” via Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin of The New York Times

Ransomware gangs get paid off as officials struggle for fix” via Frank Bajak of The Associated Press

Beware ‘smokescreen trolling,’ Trump followers’ favorite tactic” via Whitney Phillips of WIRED

What quitters understand about the job market” via Derek Thompson of The Atlantic

The NCAA is running an illegal cartel and the Supreme Court knows it.” via Mark Joseph Stern of Slate

10 things we get wrong about reparations” via Kristen Mullen and William Darity Jr. of Rolling Stone

Where the lines are drawn: New state rule could threaten FL teachers’ academic freedom in history, civics” via Danielle J. Brown of the Florida Phoenix

Big Tobacco targeted Black Floridians. Menthol ban aims to reverse the damage.” via Margo Snipe of the Tampa Bay Times

Quote of the Day

“Hopefully, they’ve seen what was done on the federal level and understand and realize the need, the importance, and the appetite the public has in recognizing these holidays.” — Rep. Travaris McCurdy, on getting the Legislature to declare Juneteenth a state holiday.

Bill Day’s Latest

 

Breakthrough Insights

 

Staff Reports


One comment

  • Larry Gillis, Libertarian (Cape Coral)

    June 21, 2021 at 8:31 pm

    No mention of the third-largest political party in Florida, the Libertarians?

    I could talk about the Senatorial and Gubernatorial races here, I suppose, but my major concern is about the underlying mindset, which is simply binary and nothing more.

Comments are closed.


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