Florida’s growth since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been driven by migration from other states, overcoming deflated immigration from overseas and the state’s negative “natural growth” — the difference between total births and deaths.
State economists expect that trend to continue in the coming years, as they met last week to approve a new forecast for Florida’s population. The projections, posted online Tuesday, were increased by nearly 4,000 people per year over the previous estimate, made in December.
Overall, the Office of Economic and Demographic Research projects the population to grow by 352,301 in 2022, to 22,251,246 people, or 3,795 more than the December estimate. That’s a 1.61% growth rate.
But while the state is still expected to grow over the next 5 years, the rate is expected to decline. In 2023, economists predict a 1.47% increase, which is projected to slow to 1.16% by 2027.
“Natural increase is expected to remain negative throughout the forecast horizon as deaths continue to outpace births,” the economists’ summary states. “Overall, the forecast maintains the pattern that the (estimating) conference has long been expecting, with growth slowing modestly each year.”
Part of the reason for the slower growth is the state’s negative natural growth rate. The state had 7,540 more deaths than births in the 2020 fiscal year, the first time Florida had a negative natural growth rate since at least 1950. In 2021 that grew to 42,690 more deaths than births before falling to 28,231 in the fiscal year that ended June 30.
That decrease in population was made up for in net migration, which was 404,266 in 2021 and 372,335 in the fiscal year that ended June 30. Net migration, though, is projected to decline to 290,452 by 2027.
That will keep Florida’s overall growth rate positive in the coming years.
“Between April 1, 2022 and April 1, 2027, population growth is expected to average 294,756 net new residents per year (808 per day), representing a compound growth rate of 1.29% over this five‐year time horizon,” the summary states. “These increases are analogous to adding a city about the size of Orlando every year.”
July 26, 2022 at 7:35 pm
All in good time, the migrants will turn the state BLUE!!!! Then all the rural wing dings can fight amongst themselves for eternity. The hogs can cook themselves on a local level. Pray for the low wage slaves!!!!!
July 26, 2022 at 8:53 pm
^ This left wing lunatic wants to turn Florida into Kalifornia, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and on and on. All those states and more that many residents here fled to avoid high taxation, poor representation, unbalanced budgets, high crime, poor infrastructure. Ignore the “BLUE” transplants and keep Florida “RED”
State Enconomists are not to be trusted
July 26, 2022 at 9:02 pm
Numbers from state agencies here in Florida are not to be trusted. These numbers fail to include increases in deaths due to the effects of climate change as well as large parts of the state that will become unlivable causing an exodus. Add that to the huge disparities in access to healthcare and services in the state and you end up with a net negative.
July 26, 2022 at 9:08 pm
Deaths from climate change? You have got to be shitting me. We do have lots of older retirees in Florida. Have you considered that?
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