Bob SparksCampaigns begin long before Labor Day each year, but the attention span of millions of voters is short prior to September. What is said and done during the fall by incumbents and challengers runs a great risk of defining a candidate and his or her party. The results can be devastating.
Republicans painfully remember Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock all too well from 2012. In the late stages of his campaign to unseat vulnerable Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., Akin made a ridiculous comment about rape and pregnancy.
Two weeks before election day, Mourdock, after unseating Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., in the primary, one-upped Akin by saying pregnancy from rape is something “God intended to happen.” Understandably, both went down in flames, with the GOP’s hope of a Senate takeover becoming part of the wreckage.
These two races were not the sole reason for Republican failures in 2012, but they made it easier for their opponents. They gave Democrats two faces with which to paint the Republican brand as out of touch, far right and downright wacky.
The Akin/Mourdock debacles represent self-inflicted wounds while Mitt Romney’s infamous “47 percent” comment didn’t help the cause. These helped further define Republicans (wrongly) as uncaring about the poor, immigrants and women.
Elections still have local roots, but they are becoming increasingly nationalized as the politics become more polarized. A tarnished brand can play a destructive role in state and local races as the GOP discovered.
This year Republicans have the same opportunities they had two years ago with the exception of winning the White House. They have at least an even chance of capturing the Senate and adding seats in the House. So far, it appears Republican primary voters did not put forward the type of combustible Senate candidates that ruined their chances in 2012.
Governors and state legislatures are also at stake. Florida’s Charlie Crist vs. Rick Scott race for governor is the most watched in the country.
Crist and Democrats in battleground states are running against a headwind. Like the GOP in 2012, Democrats have branding problems of their own caused by the words, actions or inactions of their leaders and local candidates.
President Obama has said and done many things that call his competence into question and damages the brand. “If you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor,” or referring to ISIS as “junior varsity,” or running to play golf immediately after discussing the beheading of journalist James Foley stand out.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., recently claimed “the border is secure” as tens of thousands poured into our country from the south. This followed his famous comment about the “five white men” comprising a United States Supreme Court majority. The court’s only African-American justice, Clarence Thomas, was likely amused.
Last week Florida Congresswoman and Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz said Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker “has given women the back of his hand.” She claimed people like Walker are “grabbing us by the hair and pulling us back.” The comments drew national attention and well-deserved ridicule.
A few days ago Democratic congressional candidate JT Smith of Alabama won by acclamation this cycle’s Akin/Mourdock Award for political foolishness with these words of wisdom: “Actions of Republicans in Congress are worse than #ISIL.”
Taken alone, this anthology of comments does not pose a problem. The problem develops because of who said them and when.
Going further, a party’s brand is not damaged if the opposition party is the only one doing the squawking. Obama’s recent comments about having no strategy for ISIS brought near-universal concern from Republicans and Democrats alike. Who would have thought Vice-President Joe Biden, with his “follow them to the gates of Hell” comment, would be the Democrats’ standard-bearer for clarity and resolve?
Last week, Obama pushed back until after the election his promise to reduce deportations by executive action. Cynicism quickly followed from Republicans, but the outrage from immigration groups and Democrats made even more news.
“It’s clear playing it safe is what’s going on at the White House and among Democratic circles,” said Rep. Luis Gutierrez, D-Ill., an outspoken proponent of presidential executive action on immigration. “Playing it safe means walking away from our values and our principles.”
The president is just not toeing the far left line as much as some Democrats would like. Presidents do not reach job approval numbers in the 30s without upsetting those in their own party.
To those who say the Republican brand is similarly damaged, if not more so, I would say you are correct. However, their approval ratings, like now, were in the 30s in 2010 when the GOP retook the House with a 63-seat gain. In addition, Obama’s approval rating was five to six points higher than it is now.
Labor Day has passed and voters are paying attention. Generic polling is showing a slight lean to Republicans. With that in mind, Democratic candidates in competitive races had best figure out when to begin running away from their party leadership.
Bob Sparks is a business and political consultant based in Tallahassee. Column courtesy of Context Florida.
